{"id":166,"date":"2023-05-04T20:23:44","date_gmt":"2023-05-04T17:23:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=166"},"modified":"2023-05-04T20:23:44","modified_gmt":"2023-05-04T17:23:44","slug":"tcmb-yil-sonu-enflasyon-tahminini-yuzde-223te-sabit-tuttu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=166","title":{"rendered":"TCMB y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminini y\u00fczde 22,3&#8217;te sabit tuttu"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"news-content\">\n<p>\n\tT\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015eahap Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci Enflasyon Raporu&#8217;nun tan\u0131t\u0131m\u0131 amac\u0131yla Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u0130dare Merkezi&#8217;nde d\u00fczenledi\u011fi bilgilendirme toplant\u0131s\u0131nda, tahminlerine baz te\u015fkil eden temel varsay\u0131mlarla ilgili olarak emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyri dikkate ald\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 dile getirdi.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t\u0130thalat fiyatlar\u0131nda 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc beklentilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret eden Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, bir \u00f6nceki rapor d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin b\u00f6lgesel olarak daha dengeli ve h\u0131zl\u0131 toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, arz k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n ve tedarik ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n tahmin ettiklerinden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc iyile\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6zlemlediklerini anlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tKavc\u0131o\u011flu, enerji ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki raporda beklediklerinden daha olumlu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini varsayd\u0131klar\u0131na i\u015faret ederek, &#8220;K\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar\u0131n ve artan yerli tedarikin deste\u011fiyle enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketicilere y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha uygun \u015fekilde yans\u0131t\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahminlerimize dahil ettik. K\u00fcresel g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geriledi. Di\u011fer taraftan, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda kurakl\u0131kla ilgili g\u00fcndeme gelen kayg\u0131lar son iki aydaki ya\u011f\u0131\u015flarla b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde giderildi. Yurt i\u00e7inde ba\u015fta et fiyatlar\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 olmak \u00fczere i\u00e7 piyasa sorunlar\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 tahminimizden y\u00fcksek bir g\u0131da enflasyonu geldi. Y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda g\u0131da piyasas\u0131nda fiyat istikrar\u0131 ve arz odakl\u0131 t\u00fcm tedbirlerin al\u0131narak yurt i\u00e7i g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131yla daha uyumlu bir seyir izleyece\u011fini tahminlerimize yans\u0131tt\u0131k&#8221; de\u011ferlendirmesini yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"tr\">\n\t\tMerkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015eahap Kavc\u0131o\u011flu enflasyon raporunu a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/yBexwquGMo\">https:\/\/t.co\/yBexwquGMo<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\t\u2014 TRT Haber Canl\u0131 (@trthabercanli) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/trthabercanli\/status\/1654033877890113536?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 4, 2023<\/a>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>\n\t\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\n\tK\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n tahminlerin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fine ve resesyon endi\u015felerinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkati \u00e7eken Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini \u00f6nceki rapor d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oranda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncellediklerini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tKavc\u0131o\u011flu, k\u00fcresel finansal ko\u015fullardaki mevcut s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n ise krediler yoluyla s\u00fcrece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirdiklerini belirterek, &#8220;Uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z politika bile\u015fiminin tahmin d\u00f6neminde parasal istikrar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesini bekliyoruz. Bu kapsamda, &#8216;Lirala\u015fma Stratejisi&#8217;nin t\u00fcm unsurlar\u0131yla uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n enflasyonda \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcreciyle uyumlu olu\u015ftu\u011fu bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc esas ald\u0131k. Tahminler \u00fcretilirken fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 ilgilendiren t\u00fcm yap\u0131sal konularda gereken tedbirlerin al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131, fiyat istikrar\u0131 odakl\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcnc\u00fcl bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n kararl\u0131l\u0131kla uygulanaca\u011f\u0131 bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm esas al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r&#8221; diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<strong>&#8220;\u0130\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar etkili oldu&#8221;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\n\tEnflasyon tahminlerine ili\u015fkin Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n<p>\n\t&#8220;Enflasyon tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n orta noktalar\u0131, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda y\u00fczde 22,3, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda y\u00fczde 8,8 seviyelerine tekab\u00fcl etmektedir. Enflasyon gerilemeye devam etmekle birlikte \u00f6nceki Enflasyon Raporu&#8217;nda sunulan tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. Bu geli\u015fmede, i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen art\u0131\u015flar \u00f6nemli bir rol oynam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, 2023 Y\u0131l\u0131 Para Politikas\u0131 ve Lirala\u015fma Stratejisi metninde de ifade etti\u011fimiz gibi enflasyon tahminlerimizi bir ara hedef olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Lirala\u015fma Strateji&#8217;mizin t\u00fcm ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 tahminlerimizle uyumlu bir enflasyon patikas\u0131n\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in kullanmaya devam edece\u011fiz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla tahminlerimizde herhangi bir de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitmeyerek 2023 y\u0131l sonu tahminimizi y\u00fczde 22,3, 2024 y\u0131l sonu tahminimizi de y\u00fczde 8,8&#8217;de sabit tuttuk. G\u00fcncellemelere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda T\u00fcrk liras\u0131ndaki istikrarl\u0131 seyrin devam\u0131yla birlikte T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 cinsi ithalat fiyatlar\u0131, tahminlerimize 2,3 puanl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc etkide bulundu. G\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131, bahsetti\u011fim olumlu etkilere ek olarak, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmenin etkisinden dolay\u0131 tahminlerimizi 1,5 puan yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti. \u0130\u00e7 talebin ise tahmin etti\u011fimizden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretmesi nedeniyle 0,2 puanl\u0131k bir katk\u0131s\u0131 oldu.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<strong>&#8220;Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele stratejisini kararl\u0131l\u0131kla izleyece\u011fiz&#8221;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\n\t\u015eahap Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, fiyat istikrar\u0131 odakl\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcnc\u00fcl politikalar\u0131n t\u00fcm payda\u015flarca en etkin \u015fekilde uygulanaca\u011f\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele stratejisini kararl\u0131l\u0131kla izleyeceklerini ifade ederek, &#8220;Mevcut politika \u00e7er\u00e7evemiz i\u00e7inde enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcreciyle uyumlu kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131 ile istikrar\u0131n\u0131 koruyan d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131n, enflasyonun ana e\u011filiminde bir \u00f6nceki rapor tahminlerimizden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir iyile\u015fme sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla g\u0131da ve deprem kaynakl\u0131 olarak olu\u015fan tahmin sapmas\u0131n\u0131n ana e\u011filimdeki d\u00fczeltmeyle b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda dengelenerek 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 tahminleri \u00fczerinde 0,6 puan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkisi oldu&#8221; dedi.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tK\u00fcresel ekonomide ya\u015fanan periyodik krizlere kar\u015f\u0131n, enflasyonun ve faizlerin on y\u0131llard\u0131r d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretti\u011fi, kamu a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n ve merkez bankas\u0131 bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla geni\u015fledi\u011fi d\u00f6nemin, salg\u0131n ve sava\u015f sonucundaki arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonist etkileriyle birlikte sona erdi\u011fini vurgulayan Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmede bulundu:<\/p>\n<p>\n\t&#8220;Arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n ilk etkileri ortadan kalkarken \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon g\u00f6stergelerinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu, finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve finansal sistem \u00fczerindeki belirsizliklerin y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi bir ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00f6nemindeyiz. Bu konjonkt\u00fcrde, birbirini tamamlayan ara\u00e7larla ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131yla olu\u015fturdu\u011fumuz para politikas\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evemiz olan Lirala\u015fma Stratejisi, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin potansiyelini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirme kabiliyetini ve dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz iki y\u0131lda, pandeminin etkileri hen\u00fcz tam anlam\u0131yla ortadan kalkmam\u0131\u015fken yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgemizdeki sava\u015f ve y\u00fcksek k\u00fcresel enflasyonun yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok y\u00f6nl\u00fc negatif \u015foklar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z politika \u00e7er\u00e7evesinin sundu\u011fu sa\u011flam yap\u0131 ekonomimizin ba\u015far\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye devam etmesini sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\n\tKavc\u0131o\u011flu, jeopolitik ve k\u00fcresel finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n zorlay\u0131c\u0131 etkilerine kar\u015f\u0131n, 2022&#8217;de T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin, t\u00fcm beklentilerin \u00fczerinde bir performans sergileyerek, milli gelirini y\u00fczde 5,6, makine-te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 11,7, ihracat\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 12,9 ve istihdam\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 6,8 art\u0131rarak dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kan\u0131tlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tUygulad\u0131klar\u0131 etkin politikalar\u0131n, deprem felaketiyle m\u00fccadelede de yaralar\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olan en h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde sar\u0131lmas\u0131na katk\u0131da bulundu\u011funu dile getiren Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, \u015f\u00f6yle konu\u015ftu:<\/p>\n<p>\n\t&#8220;\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir ve kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat istikrar\u0131 perspektifiyle olu\u015fturulan Lirala\u015fma Stratejisi kararl\u0131l\u0131kla uygulanmaya devam edilecektir. Politika faizlerimizi, ekonominin i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu dengeyi ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olarak analiz ederek \u00fcretim kapasitesinin geli\u015fimini sa\u011flayacak d\u00fczeyde belirlerken hedefli kredi politikas\u0131 ve likidite ara\u00e7lar\u0131m\u0131zla da ama\u00e7lad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z parasal aktar\u0131m\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 \u015fekilde i\u015flemesini sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131z. Uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00e7er\u00e7eveyi, bir taraftan yat\u0131r\u0131m, istihdam, \u00fcretim ve ihracat\u0131n geli\u015fimi do\u011frultusunda, di\u011fer taraftan finansal kaynaklar\u0131n bu ama\u00e7lar\u0131 engelleyen talep y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkilerini en aza indirecek \u015fekilde geli\u015ftirece\u011fiz. Arz kapasitesini y\u00fckseltecek finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 olu\u015fturarak cari dengemizi kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat istikrar\u0131yla uyumlu bir yap\u0131ya kavu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131z. Lirala\u015fma ad\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131z ve \u00e7e\u015fitlendirilmi\u015f rezerv y\u00f6netimimiz sonucunda rezervlerimizin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fckselttik. D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131klar\u0131n azalmas\u0131nda da \u00f6nemli bir \u00e7\u0131pa vazifesi g\u00f6ren g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc rezerv yap\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 koruyaca\u011f\u0131z.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<strong>&#8220;Uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z politikalar enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme g\u00fcc\u00fcne sahip&#8221;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\n\tKavc\u0131o\u011flu, uygulad\u0131klar\u0131 politikalar\u0131n enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme g\u00fcc\u00fcne sahip oldu\u011funu belirterek, \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n<p>\n\t&#8220;K\u00fcresel \u015foklar\u0131 daha yo\u011fun hissetti\u011fimiz bir co\u011frafyada olmam\u0131za ra\u011fmen, y\u00fcksek bir ekonomik performansla e\u015f anl\u0131 olarak enflasyonumuzun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor olmas\u0131 bunun en b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00f6stergesidir. \u00dclke ve d\u00fcnya ekonomisine dair geli\u015fmeleri g\u00fcncel ve geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 veri setimizle s\u00fcrekli olarak izlemekte, gerek reel sekt\u00f6r gerekse finansal sekt\u00f6re ili\u015fkin sahadan anl\u0131k olarak edindi\u011fimiz bilgilerin de katk\u0131s\u0131yla s\u00f6z konusu geli\u015fmeleri titizlikle de\u011ferlendirmekteyiz. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin sahip oldu\u011fu dinamizm ile dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa ve reel sekt\u00f6r ile bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc g\u00f6stergelerinin g\u00fcc\u00fcne hep birlikte \u015fahit olmaktay\u0131z. Bu sayede, deprem felaketinin a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaralar\u0131 da h\u0131zla sarmaktay\u0131z. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcreci devam ederken ayn\u0131 anda \u00fcretim ve cari fazla kapasitemizin geli\u015fece\u011fini, finansal kaynaklar\u0131n en verimli \u015fekilde kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve afet b\u00f6lgesinin ihyas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik faaliyetlerin ba\u015far\u0131yla s\u00fcrece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Geli\u015ftirdi\u011fimiz politikalar\u0131n sundu\u011fu ara\u00e7lar\u0131m\u0131zla bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesine engel te\u015fkil edecek olan unsurlar\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rmaya ve enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcrecini kararl\u0131l\u0131kla s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye devam edece\u011fiz.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\n\tBa\u015fkan Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, \u0130stanbul Finans Merkezindeki binalar\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131m s\u00fcrecinde son a\u015famaya geldikleri bilgisini de vererek, gelecek d\u00f6nemde toplant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yeni binalar\u0131nda d\u00fczenleyeceklerini bildirdi.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<strong>&#8220;Enflasyon k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir e\u011filim g\u00f6sterdi&#8221;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\n\tKavc\u0131o\u011flu, y\u00fckselen k\u00fcresel enflasyon ve finansal ko\u015fullardaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde finansal sistem \u00fczerindeki risklerin artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tS\u00f6z konusu geli\u015fmenin beklentilerde olu\u015fturdu\u011fu belirsizli\u011fe kar\u015f\u0131n, 2023&#8217;\u00fcn ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde k\u00fcresel iktisadi faaliyetin, tahminleriyle uyumlu olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini belirten Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, takip ettikleri y\u00fcksek frekansl\u0131 g\u00f6stergelerin, bu y\u0131l k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ili\u015fkin daha olumlu bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme i\u015faret etti\u011fini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tKavc\u0131o\u011flu, \u00fclke ekonomilerinin finansal ko\u015fullara beklenenden daha \u00e7ok dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stermesi ve \u00c7in&#8217;in COVID-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 sonras\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lma s\u00fcreci nedeniyle k\u00fcresel talebin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrederken, k\u00fcresel arz k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015fedi\u011fini, bununla uyumlu olarak, ticaret ortaklar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinin \u00f6nceki rapor d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncellendi\u011fini anlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tGe\u00e7en y\u0131l, ba\u015fta enerji olmak \u00fczere, emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f nedeniyle y\u00fckselen enflasyonun, fiyatlar\u0131n gerilemesiyle, k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir e\u011filim g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini belirten Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmede bulundu:<\/p>\n<p>\n\t&#8220;K\u00fcresel enflasyonun \u00f6nemli belirleyicilerinden olan do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131, tedarik endi\u015felerinin ortadan kalkmas\u0131yla tarihsel ortalamalara yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ise 2022&#8217;deki y\u00fcksek seviyelerine k\u0131yasla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterse de tarihsel ortalamalar\u0131n \u00fczerinde ve jeopolitik riskler nedeniyle dalgal\u0131 seyretmeye devam etmektedir. Bununla birlikte, k\u00fcresel \u00e7ekirdek enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f daha yava\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmektedir. Y\u00fcksek enflasyonun fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki ikincil etkileri ve talep ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n destekleyici olmaya devam etmesi k\u00fcresel enflasyondaki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri canl\u0131 tutmaktad\u0131r.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\n\tKavc\u0131o\u011flu, son d\u00f6nemde, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc kaynakl\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde finansal risklerin artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayarak, bu durumun, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n finansal istikrar\u0131 \u00f6nceliklendirmesine sebep oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tBu do\u011frultuda, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 likidite destekleri nedeniyle bilan\u00e7o b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminin sekteye u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bilan\u00e7olarda belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlendi\u011fini belirten Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n<p>\n\t&#8220;Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki para takas\u0131 anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7er\u00e7evesi likiditeyi art\u0131rmak amac\u0131yla \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geni\u015fletilmi\u015ftir. Bu durum, finansal k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131 g\u00f6zetmeyen para politikas\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fini g\u00fcndeme getirmektedir. T\u00fcrk bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ise, uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z b\u00fct\u00fcnc\u00fcl stratejinin de deste\u011fiyle, g\u00fcvenli ve sa\u011flam g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmektedir. Temel bankac\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stergeleri olan aktif ve \u00f6zkaynak karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, likit varl\u0131klar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri kar\u015f\u0131lama oran\u0131, sermaye yeterlili\u011fi, tahsili gecikmi\u015f alacaklar\u0131n toplam kredilere oran\u0131n\u0131 da i\u00e7eren \u00e7e\u015fitli kriterler bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn sa\u011flaml\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit etmektedir.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<strong>&#8220;T\u00fcrkiye, y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini verimlilik art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla bir arada ilerletmeyi ba\u015fard\u0131&#8221;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\n\tKavc\u0131o\u011flu, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin, &#8220;G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc politika \u00e7er\u00e7evemizin ekonomimizin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na sundu\u011fu katk\u0131; yat\u0131r\u0131m, istihdam, \u00fcretim ve ihracat geli\u015fmeleriyle net bir \u015fekilde g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Ayr\u0131ca, \u00fclkemizin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin yan\u0131nda artan verimlili\u011fine ve sanayi \u00fcretimi i\u00e7indeki y\u00fcksek teknoloji alanlar\u0131ndaki ivmelenmeye dikkatinizi \u00e7ekmek istiyorum. Gayri safi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131lam\u0131z, 2021&#8217;deki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans\u0131n\u0131 2022&#8217;de de s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek y\u00fczde 5,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydetmi\u015ftir. Her iki d\u00f6nemde de T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte en y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonomiler aras\u0131nda yerini alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r&#8221; de\u011ferlendirmesini yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tUluslararas\u0131 kurulu\u015flar\u0131n yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilere g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131yla 2022&#8217;de G20 ve OECD \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda \u00fcst s\u0131ralarda bulundu\u011funu belirten Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, buna ek olarak, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin di\u011fer \u00fclkelerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, son y\u0131llarda ya\u015fanan &#8220;\u00e7al\u0131\u015fan ba\u015f\u0131na katma de\u011fer&#8221; art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla da \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t\u015eahap Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini verimlilik art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla bir arada ilerletmeyi ba\u015fard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayarak, \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n<p>\n\t&#8220;Son d\u00f6nemdeki y\u00fcksek istihdam art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, y\u00fcksek verimlilik art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ekonomimizin \u00fcretim kapasitesindeki, inovasyon alan\u0131ndaki ve teknoloji adaptasyonundaki geli\u015fiminin boyutunu yans\u0131tmaktad\u0131r. B\u00f6ylelikle, uluslararas\u0131 refah kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131nda do\u011fru \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct olan sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesiyle bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen milli gelirde geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke seviyelerine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde yak\u0131nsamaktad\u0131r. Enerji ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n olumsuz etkilerine ra\u011fmen, \u00fclkemizin bu ekonomik ba\u015far\u0131y\u0131 ortaya koyabilmesi, finansal kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 verimli kullanarak \u00fcretim kabiliyeti ve kapasitesini s\u00fcrekli geli\u015ftirmesiyle m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmu\u015ftur.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<strong>&#8220;\u00dcretim yap\u0131m\u0131zdaki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcme ekonominin dinamik yap\u0131s\u0131ndaki geli\u015fim de e\u015flik ediyor&#8221;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\n\tSanayi \u00fcretiminde d\u0131\u015f talepteki yava\u015flaman\u0131n etkilerinin 2022&#8217;nin ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda hissedilirken, y\u0131l\u0131n son aylar\u0131nda bu konuda toparlanma g\u00f6zlendi\u011fini hat\u0131rlatan Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, Ocak 2023&#8217;te sanayi \u00fcretimindeki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 7,1&#8217;e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini anlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tTCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, 6 \u015eubat&#8217;taki deprem felaketi sonucunda \u015fubat ay\u0131nda sanayi \u00fcretiminin y\u00fczde 8,2 geriledi\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izerek, mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise ocak-\u015fubat ortalamas\u0131nda, \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re, y\u00fczde 0,4 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6zlendi\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t\u00dclke tarihindeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck felaketlerden birinin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilk \u00e7eyrekte sanayi \u00fcretiminin nispeten yatay seyretmesinin, ekonominin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve dinamizminin bir g\u00f6stergesi oldu\u011funa dikkati \u00e7eken Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, s\u00f6zlerini \u015f\u00f6yle s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc:<\/p>\n<p>\n\t&#8220;\u00d6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler, afet sonras\u0131 toparlanman\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesiyle sanayi \u00fcretimindeki kay\u0131plar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde telafi edilmekte oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etmektedir. Daha geni\u015f bir perspektiften bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise ekonomimizin \u00fcretim odakl\u0131 geli\u015fimi a\u00e7\u0131k \u015fekilde g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Sanayi \u00fcretim endeksi, son iki y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 23,7 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler, sanayi \u00fcretimlerini pandemi sonras\u0131nda uygulad\u0131klar\u0131 geni\u015fletici politikalara ra\u011fmen belirgin \u015fekilde art\u0131ramam\u0131\u015f ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 da kaybetmi\u015flerdir. \u00d6te yandan, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te daha ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir performans sergileyerek h\u0131zl\u0131 bir toparlanma ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmi\u015ftir. \u00dclkemiz ise daha da ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ortaya koyarak sanayi \u00fcretiminde geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131na yak\u0131n art\u0131\u015f kaydetmi\u015ftir.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\n\tKavc\u0131o\u011flu, sanayi \u00fcretimindeki ivmelenmeye ek olarak sanayi yap\u0131lar\u0131nda da belirgin bir geli\u015fim g\u00f6zlendi\u011fini belirterek, sanayi \u00fcretim endeksinin son iki y\u0131lda orta-ileri ve y\u00fcksek teknoloji sekt\u00f6rlerinde s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 33 ve y\u00fczde 37 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tBu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, y\u00fcksek teknoloji \u00fcretiminin verimlilik art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na da katk\u0131 sunan istikrarl\u0131 ve kayda de\u011fer bir geli\u015fim g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini vurgulayan Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, \u015fu bilgileri payla\u015ft\u0131:<\/p>\n<p>\n\t&#8220;\u00dcretim yap\u0131m\u0131zdaki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcme ekonominin dinamik yap\u0131s\u0131ndaki geli\u015fim de e\u015flik etmektedir. Yerli \u015firketlerin patent ba\u015fvurular\u0131 2020 y\u0131l sonundan bu yana y\u00fczde 10 artm\u0131\u015f, yerli marka, faydal\u0131 model ve tasar\u0131m ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ile kurulan \u015firket say\u0131lar\u0131na da yans\u0131yan ve bir\u00e7ok ekonomiyi geride b\u0131rakan bir dinamizm ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2022 y\u0131l sonu itibar\u0131yla makine-te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 13 \u00e7eyrektir b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek, 2022&#8217;de b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye 1,4 puanl\u0131k katk\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. B\u00f6ylece, makine-te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n milli gelir i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 13,1&#8217;e y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. Net ihracat ile bu iki \u00f6nemli bile\u015fenin milli gelir i\u00e7erisindeki pay\u0131 2022&#8217;de y\u00fczde 17,3 ile tarihi zirvesine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. S\u00f6z konusu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans, 2022&#8217;de g\u00f6zlenen b\u00fcy\u00fck negatif arz \u015foklar\u0131na ve y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda k\u00fcresel iktisadi faaliyetin gerilemesine ra\u011fmen elde edilmi\u015ftir. 2023&#8217;te k\u00fcresel talebin toparlanmas\u0131yla birlikte b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini devam ettirece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<strong>Toplam ihracat deprem \u00f6ncesi seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\n\tKavc\u0131o\u011flu, ya\u015fanan deprem felaketinin ekonomi \u00fczerindeki etkilerini kapsaml\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeye devam ettiklerini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tDeprem sonras\u0131nda toparlanman\u0131n, gerek afet b\u00f6lgesinde gerekse \u00fclke genelinde h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini bildiren Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, &#8220;Afet b\u00f6lgesindeki t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler deprem sonras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015f olsa da yak\u0131n zamanda deprem \u00f6ncesi seviyelerini a\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu durum, deprem genelinde olduk\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir toparlanma e\u011filimine i\u015faret etmektedir. \u0130ktisadi Y\u00f6nelim Anketi verilerine g\u00f6re gelecek \u00fc\u00e7 aya ili\u015fkin talep beklentisi y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. \u0130l baz\u0131nda incelendi\u011finde, afet b\u00f6lgesinin ekonomik a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek merkezlerinde de \u00fcretim ve talep beklentilerinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir&#8221; diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tKavc\u0131o\u011flu, afet b\u00f6lgesinden yap\u0131lan ihracat\u0131n da depremi takip eden ilk haftalarda gerilemekle birlikte, nisan ay\u0131 itibar\u0131yla bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemindeki seviyelerine yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktar\u0131rken, di\u011fer illerdeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat sonucunda toplam ihracat\u0131n deprem \u00f6ncesi seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tT\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin son iki y\u0131lda istihdam\u0131n\u0131 en \u00e7ok art\u0131ran \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, &#8220;Depremin i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkilerinin tam olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilmesi i\u00e7in veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n tamamlanmas\u0131 gerekmektedir. \u00d6te yandan, iktisadi faaliyet ile a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f ve i\u015f ba\u015fvurular\u0131na ili\u015fkin y\u00fcksek frekansl\u0131 veriler, depremin i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkilerinin \u00fclke genelinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir&#8221; diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tKavc\u0131o\u011flu, turizm sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda da s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izerek, &#8220;K\u00fcresel turizm talebi pandemi \u00f6ncesi seviyelerine ula\u015f\u0131rken, turizmdeki rekabet\u00e7i yap\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n da deste\u011fiyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde turizm gelirlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ve cari dengeye katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n t\u00fcm aylar\u0131na yay\u0131larak s\u00fcrece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz&#8221; de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<strong>&#8220;Alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131 azal\u0131yor&#8221;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\n\t\u0130hracat\u0131n da 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda talep ko\u015fullar\u0131nda devam eden zay\u0131fl\u0131k ve deprem felaketine ra\u011fmen, \u00fcr\u00fcn ve \u00fclke d\u00fczeyindeki \u00e7e\u015fitlendirilmi\u015f yap\u0131s\u0131 ile dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kan\u0131tlamaya devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret eden Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, &#8220;Y\u00fckselen d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada oldu\u011fu gibi 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda enerji fiyatlar\u0131 temel belirleyici olurken, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda seviye olarak halen y\u00fcksek olmakla birlikte enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerilemenin olumlu etkileri ithalat\u0131m\u0131za yans\u0131maya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Di\u011fer taraftan, alt\u0131n ve t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131 y\u00fcksek seyretmi\u015ftir. Bununla birlikte, nisan ay\u0131 ge\u00e7ici d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri, alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131n\u0131n, zirve yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 ocak ay\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rtte birine indi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir&#8221; ifadesini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<strong>Cari dengeye 289 milyar dolar katk\u0131 sa\u011flanaca\u011f\u0131 tahmini<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\n\tKavc\u0131o\u011flu, cari dengeye y\u00f6nelik beklentilerine ili\u015fkin de bilgi verirken, &#8220;2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 cari dengelenmenin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nem olacakt\u0131r. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131ndaki normalle\u015fmeye ek olarak k\u00fcresel talepteki toparlanman\u0131n s\u00fcrmesinin ihracat \u00fczerindeki etkileriyle birlikte d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesinde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda iyile\u015fme beklenmektedir. Turizm gelirlerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyri sonucunda y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda cari dengenin korunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Buna ek olarak, mevcut de\u011ferlendirmelerimize g\u00f6re y\u00fcksek teknoloji, enerji, yer alt\u0131 zenginlikleri ve turizmin kapasitesini art\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle birlikte, 2030 y\u0131l\u0131na kadarki s\u00fcre\u00e7te cari dengeye birikimli olarak yakla\u015f\u0131k 289 milyar dolar katk\u0131 sa\u011flanaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilmektedir&#8221; de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tEnflasyonun, ekim ay\u0131ndaki zirve noktas\u0131 olan y\u00fczde 85,5&#8217;ten yakla\u015f\u0131k 42 puan gerileyerek nisan ay\u0131 itibar\u0131yla y\u00fczde 43,7&#8217;ye indi\u011fini belirten Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, &#8220;Enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcrecinde etkin politikalar\u0131m\u0131z sonucu olu\u015fan kur istikrar\u0131, beklentilerdeki iyile\u015fme ve k\u00fcresel emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki yava\u015flama belirleyici rol oynamaktad\u0131r. Enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcreci, \u00f6nceki Enflasyon Raporu&#8217;nda ilan etti\u011fimiz patikadan bir miktar daha yava\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. Bu sapmada i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da piyasas\u0131ndaki sorunlar nedeniyle et ve s\u00fct \u00fcr\u00fcnleri temel rol oynam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, emeklilik d\u00fczenlemeleri ve kredilerdeki ivmelenmenin ayn\u0131 anda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi sonucunda g\u00fc\u00e7lenen t\u00fcketim talebi ve deprem nedeniyle \u00f6zellikle konut piyasas\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan arz-talep uyumsuzluklar\u0131 da bu geli\u015fmede etkili olmu\u015ftur&#8221; diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tKavc\u0131o\u011flu, enflasyonun ana e\u011filimine y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6stergelerin, fiyat art\u0131\u015f oranlar\u0131ndaki belirgin yava\u015flamay\u0131 teyit etti\u011fine dikkati \u00e7ekerek, de\u011ferlendirmesine \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n<p>\n\t&#8220;\u00c7ekirdek ve medyan enflasyon g\u00f6stergeleri ocak ay\u0131ndaki zamana ba\u011fl\u0131 fiyat ve \u00fccret ayarlamalar\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda istikrarl\u0131 azal\u0131\u015f e\u011filimini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmektedir. Son d\u00f6nemde \u00e7ekirdek g\u00f6stergeler Ekim 2021&#8217;den bu yana kaydedilen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere gerilemi\u015ftir. Enflasyonun sadece ana e\u011filimine de\u011fil, yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6stergeler de gerilemektedir. Fiyat\u0131 artan kalemlerin fiyat\u0131 azalan kalemlere oran\u0131na ili\u015fkin bilgi sunan yay\u0131l\u0131m endeksi, \u00f6zellikle \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekten itibaren enflasyonda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen h\u0131z kayb\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulamaktad\u0131r. Enflasyondaki yava\u015flama beklentilere de yans\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 12 ve 24 ay sonras\u0131 enflasyon beklentileri eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndan itibaren gerilemeye ba\u015flayarak, nisan ay\u0131 itibar\u0131yla s\u0131ras\u0131yla 11,0 ve 6,8 puan azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi ve \u0130ktisadi Y\u00f6nelim Anketi verileri de hane halk\u0131 beklentilerinde ve \u015firket maliyetlerinde iyile\u015fmeye i\u015faret etmektedir.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\n\tT\u00fcrk liras\u0131 cinsinden ithalat birim de\u011fer endeksinin son d\u00f6nemde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda geriledi\u011fini belirten Kavc\u0131o\u011flu,&#8221;B\u00f6ylelikle enflasyon \u00fczerindeki maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ortadan kalkm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 boyunca toparlanma g\u00f6steren yurt i\u00e7i tedarik\u00e7i teslimat s\u00fcresi, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndan itibaren belirgin olarak iyile\u015fmi\u015ftir. \u00d6zellikle ekim ay\u0131nda tarihsel a\u00e7\u0131dan iyi olarak nitelendirilebilecek bir d\u00fczeye ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f ve aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bu d\u00fczeyi de a\u015farak olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015ftir. \u015eubat ay\u0131nda ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z deprem nedeniyle yurt i\u00e7i teslimat s\u00fcresinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oranda gerileme g\u00f6r\u00fclmekle birlikte, bu gerileme ge\u00e7ici olup teslimat s\u00fcresi h\u0131zla toparlanmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Petrol ve ana metal hari\u00e7 imalat sanayi fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndan beri kademeli olarak azalmaktad\u0131r&#8221; dedi.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tKavc\u0131o\u011flu, son bir y\u0131ld\u0131r b\u00fct\u00fcnc\u00fcl bir perspektifle uygulad\u0131klar\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 &#8220;Lirala\u015fma Stratejisi&#8221; ad\u0131yla \u00f6zetlediklerini an\u0131msat\u0131rken, Lirala\u015fma Stratejisi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde yat\u0131r\u0131m, istihdam, \u00fcretim ve ihracat kapasitesini art\u0131racak reel sekt\u00f6r faaliyetlerinin uygun finansman olanaklar\u0131yla bulu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 ama\u00e7lad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tBu kapsamda, 2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00f6nelik artan belirsizlikler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n destekleyici olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini de\u011ferlendirerek, politika faizini \u00f6n al\u0131c\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131mla 500 baz puan indirdiklerini belirten Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, &#8220;Ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z felaket sonras\u0131nda da depremin ekonomik etkilerinin en aza indirilmesi ve deprem sonras\u0131 toparlanma s\u00fcrecinin desteklenmesi amac\u0131yla politika faizini 50 baz puan daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekerek y\u00fczde 8,5 seviyesine getirdik. Ticari kredi faizleri ve uzun vadeli faizlerin parasal aktar\u0131m\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecek \u015fekilde olu\u015fmas\u0131 amac\u0131yla uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z hedefli politikalarla, finansman maliyetleri \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilmi\u015ftir. T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 ticari kredi faizleri 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 temmuz ay\u0131ndan itibaren politika faizimizle uyumlu olarak 18 puan civar\u0131nda azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 10 y\u0131l vadeli T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 menkul k\u0131ymet faizleri de 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 mart ay\u0131ndan bu yana gerileyerek 15 puana yak\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir&#8221; diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tKavc\u0131o\u011flu, son d\u00f6nemde firmalar\u0131n d\u00f6viz cinsi kredileri gerilemekle birlikte, t\u00fcketici kredilerindeki belirgin ivmelenme sonucunda toplam kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin art\u0131\u015f kaydetti\u011fini bildirirken, \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n<p>\n\t&#8220;Hedefli kredi politikam\u0131z\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in kredilerin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131, kompozisyonu ve kullan\u0131m ama\u00e7lar\u0131na ili\u015fkin t\u00fcm politika ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 hedeflerimiz do\u011frultusunda kararl\u0131l\u0131kla uygulamaya devam edece\u011fiz. Lirala\u015fma Stratejisi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z etkin politikalarla bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc mevduat yap\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6nemli oranda lirala\u015fma sa\u011flad\u0131k. Bu kapsamda, T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 mevduat oran\u0131 y\u00fckselerek 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 ocak ay\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 35,6 seviyesinden, halihaz\u0131rdaki y\u00fczde 59,7 seviyesine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 zamanda teminat yap\u0131s\u0131nda sabit getirili T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 cinsinden k\u0131ymetlerin ve sistemin fonlanmas\u0131nda T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131n pay\u0131 y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ile paralel \u015fekilde firmalar\u0131n ve hane halk\u0131n\u0131n varl\u0131k ve y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerinde T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131n pay\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrmektedir. Finansal sistemin kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u015fekilde lirala\u015fmas\u0131 hedefimize, finansal istikrar\u0131 da g\u00f6zeterek, sa\u011flam ad\u0131mlarla ve ayn\u0131 kararl\u0131l\u0131kla ilerlemeye devam edece\u011fiz.&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"news-tags\">\n<div class=\"title\">ET\u0130KETLER<\/div>\n<div class=\"tags\">\n                                                                            Enflasyon<br \/>\n                                                                            Merkez Bankas\u0131\n                                                                    <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015eahap Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci Enflasyon Raporu&#8217;nun tan\u0131t\u0131m\u0131 amac\u0131yla Merkez&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":167,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[386,146,387,384,385,382,388,383,21],"class_list":["post-166","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi-haberleri","tag-223te","tag-enflasyon","tag-sabit","tag-sonu","tag-tahminini","tag-tcmb","tag-tuttu","tag-yil","tag-yuzde"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>TCMB y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminini y\u00fczde 22,3&#039;te sabit tuttu - Es-Exchange Ekonomi Haberleri<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=166\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"TCMB y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminini y\u00fczde 22,3&#039;te sabit tuttu - Es-Exchange Ekonomi Haberleri\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015eahap Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci Enflasyon Raporu&#8217;nun tan\u0131t\u0131m\u0131 amac\u0131yla Merkez...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=166\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Es-Exchange Ekonomi Haberleri\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-05-04T17:23:44+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"SysAdmin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Yazan:\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"SysAdmin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tahmini okuma s\u00fcresi\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"23 dakika\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=166\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=166\",\"name\":\"TCMB y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminini y\u00fczde 22,3'te sabit tuttu - Es-Exchange Ekonomi Haberleri\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-05-04T17:23:44+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-05-04T17:23:44+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/#\/schema\/person\/158dd5fa81df3834f5b3789301ac67bc\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=166#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"tr\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=166\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=166#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Anasayfa\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"TCMB y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminini y\u00fczde 22,3&#8217;te sabit tuttu\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/\",\"name\":\"Es-Exchange Ekonomi Haberleri\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"tr\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/#\/schema\/person\/158dd5fa81df3834f5b3789301ac67bc\",\"name\":\"SysAdmin\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"tr\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/97e85c10026bf595e73c516bd77b6b8763a73b584e665e0c1425bd2e7295d7b6?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/97e85c10026bf595e73c516bd77b6b8763a73b584e665e0c1425bd2e7295d7b6?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"SysAdmin\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?author=1\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"TCMB y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminini y\u00fczde 22,3'te sabit tuttu - Es-Exchange Ekonomi Haberleri","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=166","og_locale":"tr_TR","og_type":"article","og_title":"TCMB y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminini y\u00fczde 22,3'te sabit tuttu - Es-Exchange Ekonomi Haberleri","og_description":"T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015eahap Kavc\u0131o\u011flu, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci Enflasyon Raporu&#8217;nun tan\u0131t\u0131m\u0131 amac\u0131yla Merkez...","og_url":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=166","og_site_name":"Es-Exchange Ekonomi Haberleri","article_published_time":"2023-05-04T17:23:44+00:00","author":"SysAdmin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Yazan:":"SysAdmin","Tahmini okuma s\u00fcresi":"23 dakika"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=166","url":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=166","name":"TCMB y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminini y\u00fczde 22,3'te sabit tuttu - Es-Exchange Ekonomi Haberleri","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-05-04T17:23:44+00:00","dateModified":"2023-05-04T17:23:44+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/#\/schema\/person\/158dd5fa81df3834f5b3789301ac67bc"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=166#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"tr","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=166"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=166#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Anasayfa","item":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"TCMB y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminini y\u00fczde 22,3&#8217;te sabit tuttu"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/#website","url":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/","name":"Es-Exchange Ekonomi Haberleri","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"tr"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/#\/schema\/person\/158dd5fa81df3834f5b3789301ac67bc","name":"SysAdmin","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"tr","@id":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/97e85c10026bf595e73c516bd77b6b8763a73b584e665e0c1425bd2e7295d7b6?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/97e85c10026bf595e73c516bd77b6b8763a73b584e665e0c1425bd2e7295d7b6?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"SysAdmin"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler"],"url":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?author=1"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/166","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=166"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/166\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/167"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=166"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=166"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=166"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}