{"id":2409,"date":"2023-08-23T11:19:47","date_gmt":"2023-08-23T08:19:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=2409"},"modified":"2023-08-23T11:19:47","modified_gmt":"2023-08-23T08:19:47","slug":"alman-ekonomisindeki-durgunlugun-surmesi-bekleniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=2409","title":{"rendered":"Alman ekonomisindeki durgunlu\u011fun s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\n\tSanayisi yabanc\u0131 rekabetten olumsuz etkilenen Almanya’n\u0131n, jeopolitik \u00e7eki\u015fmelere kar\u015f\u0131 savunmas\u0131z kalmas\u0131 dikkati \u00e7ekiyor. \u00dclkenin iklimin korunmas\u0131 hedeflerine ula\u015fmas\u0131 zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrken, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn ya\u015flanmas\u0131n\u0131n da ekonomiyi bask\u0131lamas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

\n\tRusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 Avro B\u00f6lgesi’nde y\u00fckselen enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 artan faiz oranlar\u0131, in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Alman \u015firketlerin yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma arzusunu frenlerken, Almanya, COVID-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 sonras\u0131 sanayisi i\u00e7in tedarik zincirlerini yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\n\tYap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131n da ekonomiyi frenledi\u011fi Almanya’da, bir zamanlar olduk\u00e7a ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olan “Rus do\u011fal gaz\u0131 ile ucuz enerji ve ara mal\u0131 ithal et, bunlar\u0131 i\u015fle ve y\u00fcksek kaliteye sahip mal olarak ‘Made in Germany’ alg\u0131s\u0131yla pahal\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde ihra\u00e7 et” ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 i\u015f modeli art\u0131k i\u015fe yaram\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\n\tCOVID-19 salg\u0131n\u0131, tedarik zinciri kesintileri, Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 gibi son d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fanan \u00e7ok say\u0131da kriz, Alman ekonomisinin zay\u0131f y\u00f6nlerini su y\u00fcz\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken, \u00fclkenin; jeopolitik, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ve demografik zorluklar\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelme konusunda birtak\u0131m sorunlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya bulunmas\u0131 da dikkati \u00e7ekiyor. Almanya’n\u0131n “kendi \u00fcretti\u011fi b\u00fcrokrasi, kurallar ve prosed\u00fcrler alt\u0131nda da ezildi\u011fi” belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n

\n\tEkonomi resesyonda<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tAlman ekonomisi, al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve artan faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lamas\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 0,3 daralarak, teknik olarak resesyona girmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00dclke ekonomisi, salg\u0131n s\u00fcrecinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan dar bo\u011fazlar hafiflese de faizlerin y\u00fckselmesi, ekonomiye g\u00fcvenin azalmas\u0131 ve al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek enflasyon ortam\u0131nda t\u00fcketicilerin sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015fmesi sonucu talepte ya\u015fanan durgunluktan olumsuz etkileniyor.<\/p>\n

\n\tAlmanya Federal \u0130statistik Ofisi (Destatis) verilerine g\u00f6re, ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde \u00f6nemli yeri olan imalat sanayinde \u00fcretim haziranda \u00f6nceki aya k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 1,5 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, reel perakende sat\u0131\u015flar da y\u00fczde 0,8 darald\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u0130hracat da beklentilerin alt\u0131nda artt\u0131. Uzmanlar, tedarik zincirindeki s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar, daha par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f bir k\u00fcresel ekonomi ve \u00c7in’in daha \u00f6nce Almanya’dan sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 mallar\u0131 giderek daha fazla \u00fcretebilmesinin, haziranda ihracat\u0131 bask\u0131layan fakt\u00f6rler oldu\u011funu belirtiyor.<\/p>\n

\n\tING K\u00fcresel Makro Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ve Almanya Ba\u015fekonomisti Carsten Brzeski, konuya ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmesinde, “Ticaret; art\u0131k Alman ekonomisinin eskiden oldu\u011fu gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve diren\u00e7li bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme itici g\u00fcc\u00fc de\u011fil, daha \u00e7ok bir engeldir.” ifadesini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00dclkenin ithalat\u0131 da haziranda ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 3,4 gerileyerek d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na neden oldu.<\/p>\n

\n\tEkonomik trendin tersine d\u00f6nmesi beklenmiyor<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tAlmanya Ekonomi ve Enerji Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00fclke ekonomisi i\u00e7in “Mevcut \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler hen\u00fcz \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda s\u00fcrekli bir ekonomik canlanmaya i\u015faret etmiyor” de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulunurken, Ekonomi Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc’n\u00fcn (Ifo) a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130\u015f Ortam\u0131 G\u00fcven Endeksi, \u015firket y\u00f6neticilerinin gelecek beklentilerindeki keskin k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmenin etkisiyle 3 ayd\u0131r art arda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

\n\tAvrupa Ekonomik Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Merkezi (ZEW) Ekonomik G\u00fcven Endeksi’nde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, Alman Makroekonomi ve Konjonkt\u00fcr Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (IMK), \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte Alman ekonomisinde resesyon olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 71,5 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

\n\tAyr\u0131ca, in\u015faat ruhsatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f in\u015faat krizinin erken sona erdi\u011fini g\u00f6stermiyor. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 itibar\u0131yla Almanya’da verilen yap\u0131 ruhsatlar\u0131n\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131 y\u00fczde 27 geriledi.<\/p>\n

\n\tBu arada, Destatis, 25 A\u011fustos’ta y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc GSYH verilerini a\u00e7\u0131klayacak.<\/p>\n

\n\tBundesbank: Resesyondaki Alman ekonomisinde hen\u00fcz bir toparlanma yok<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tAlmanya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Bundesbank), \u00fclke ekonomisindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelen zay\u0131f talep ve artan finansman maliyetleri nedeniyle yatay kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n

\n\tBundesbank’\u0131n ekonomiye y\u00f6nelik a\u011fustos ay\u0131 raporunda, \u00f6nc\u00fc tahminlerin Alman ekonomisinin y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde s\u0131f\u0131r b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydetti\u011fine i\u015faret etti\u011fi belirtilerek, temmuz-eyl\u00fcl d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in de g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn \u00e7ok daha iyi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaydedildi.<\/p>\n

\n\tYurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelen zay\u0131f talep ve faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla y\u00fckselen finansman maliyetlerinin ekonomiyi bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131lan raporda, “Almanya’n\u0131n ekonomik \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131s\u0131 muhtemelen \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte de b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalacak.” denildi.<\/p>\n

\n\tAlman mallar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik d\u0131\u015f talebin son zamanlarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fu, bu nedenle sanayi \u00fcretiminin temmuz-eyl\u00fcl d\u00f6neminde zay\u0131f kalmaya devam edece\u011fi belirtilen raporda, Almanya’n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 \u00c7in’in Kovid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 sonras\u0131 toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ivme kaybetti\u011fi bildirildi.<\/p>\n

\n\tAvrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (ECB) enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye y\u00f6nelik faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131yla y\u00fckselen bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin Almanya’da yat\u0131r\u0131m ve in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmaya devam edece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnde bulunulan raporda, enflasyonun uzun bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in ECB’nin y\u00fczde 2 hedefinin \u00fcst\u00fcnde kalabilece\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n

\n\tDi\u011fer \u00fclkeler krizle daha iyi ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tAlman ekonomisi bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ederken, ABD ve Japonya gibi di\u011fer sanayile\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin enflasyon ve y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131yla daha iyi ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 dikkati \u00e7ekiyor. Avro B\u00f6lgesi’nin di\u011fer \u00fclkelerinde de ekonomik gidi\u015fat Almanya’ya k\u0131yasla daha iyi bir seyir izliyor.<\/p>\n

\n\tUluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF) tahminlerine g\u00f6re, Almanya, bu y\u0131l k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclecek tek G7 \u00fclkesi olacak.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00d6te yandan, Almanya’n\u0131n en \u00f6nemli ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 olan \u00c7in’de de bu d\u00f6nemde \u00e7ok say\u0131da ekonomik sorun bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u0130\u015fsizlik ve \u015firket iflaslar\u0131 art\u0131yor<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\t\u00dclkede mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f i\u015fsiz say\u0131s\u0131, Kovid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k 400 bin artarken, uzmanlar, “tam istihdamdan” bahsedilmemesi gerekti\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n

\n\tFederal \u0130\u015f Ajans\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Andrea Nahles, temmuz ay\u0131 i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verilerine ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmesinde, “Zay\u0131f ekonomi i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcnde iz b\u0131rak\u0131yor.” ifadesini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tBu arada, \u00fclkede iflas eden \u015firket say\u0131s\u0131 temmuzda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda keskin art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterirken, Halle Ekonomik Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (IWH) verilerine g\u00f6re, Almanya’da \u015firketlerin ve ortakl\u0131klar\u0131n iflas ba\u015fvurular\u0131 temmuzda ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 44,4 artarak 1.025’e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

\n\tAlmanya Ekonomi ve Enerji Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda, “Genel olarak, iflas e\u011filimi \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyede de olsa 2022’nin ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan bu yana istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde art\u0131yor.” denildi.<\/p>\n

\n\tB\u00fcrokrasi sorunu<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tAlmanya’da \u015firketlerin h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015fen k\u00fcresel ekonomiye uyum sa\u011flamas\u0131nda b\u00fcrokrasi \u00f6nemli bir sorun haline gelirken, \u015firketlerin ba\u015fta in\u015faat ruhsat\u0131 olmak \u00fczere izin almalar\u0131 di\u011fer AB \u00fclkelerine k\u0131yasla uzun bir s\u00fcre gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n

\n\tAlmanya’n\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen telekom\u00fcnikasyon \u015firketi olan Deutsche Telekom’un Y\u00f6netim Kurulu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Timotheus H\u00f6ttges, \u00fclkede dijitalle\u015fmeyi engelleyen b\u00fcrokratik engellerin h\u0131zla kald\u0131r\u0131lmamas\u0131 halinde \u015firketin yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fi konusunda Alman h\u00fck\u00fcmetini uyard\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tH\u00f6ttges, “E\u011fer mevcut ko\u015fullar de\u011fi\u015fmezse ABD dahil yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki yat\u0131r\u0131m f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek zorunda kalabiliriz. ABD’deki telekom\u00fcnikasyon sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde m\u00fc\u015fteri ba\u015f\u0131na gelir, Almanya’dakinden 3 kat daha y\u00fcksek.” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tBu arada, Almanya’da h\u00fck\u00fcmeti olu\u015fturan Sosyal Demokrat Parti (SPD), Ye\u015filler ve H\u00fcr Demokrat Parti (FDP) aras\u0131nda ekonomik ve sosyal politikalar konusunda ya\u015fanan anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131n da ekonomiyi olumsuz etkiledi\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n

\n\tAlmanya, \u00c7in’in k\u00fcresel ekonomiye a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131ndan en \u00e7ok yararlanan \u00fclkelerden<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tAlmanya’n\u0131n di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck Avrupa ekonomilerine k\u0131yasla \u00c7in’e daha fazla ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olmas\u0131 dikkati \u00e7ekiyor. \u00c7in’in Almanya’dan sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 mallar\u0131 giderek daha fazla \u00fcretebilmesi Alman ekonomisinin resesyondan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u0130hracat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 bir ekonomiye sahip olan Almanya, \u00c7in’in k\u00fcresel ekonomiye a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131ndan y\u0131llard\u0131r en \u00e7ok yararlanan \u00fclkelerden biri konumunda bulunuyordu.<\/p>\n

\n\tAlman otomobilleri ve makineleri, \u00c7in’de yo\u011fun talep g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u00c7in’e yap\u0131lan ihracat, Almanya’n\u0131n 2. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 en uzun ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini destekledi. \u00c7in, son 7 y\u0131ld\u0131r Almanya’n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 olurken, iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki ticaret hacmi ge\u00e7en y\u0131l yakla\u015f\u0131k 300 milyar avroya ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tAlman kamuoyu, son d\u00f6nemde Rusya’ya olan enerji ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n enerji kriziyle sonu\u00e7lanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00c7in’e olan ekonomik ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Almanya’n\u0131n \u00c7in’e ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131; d\u0131\u015f ticaret, tedarik zincirleri veya “b\u00fcy\u00fck pazar” konusunda dikkati \u00e7ekiyor. Elektrikli otomobiller i\u00e7in \u00f6nemi giderek artan lityum bataryalar ve nadir toprak elementler gibi ham maddelerde Almanya’n\u0131n \u00c7in’e “g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ithalat ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131” oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00c7in, ba\u015fta Alman otomobil \u00fcreticileri olmak \u00fczere Alman \u015firketleri i\u00e7in hem sat\u0131\u015f hem de b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Alman \u015firketleri, k\u00fcresel pazar i\u00e7in \u00c7in’deki en son teknolojileri geli\u015ftiriyor ve test ediyor.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00c7in’in Alman ekonomisi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemini vurgulayan Alman i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 da “\u00c7in olmadan yapamayacaklar\u0131” uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

\n\tD\u00fcnyan\u0131n ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisine sahip \u00c7in’de t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 gerilerken, emlak krizi derinle\u015fiyor. \u0130hracat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7erken, gen\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndaki i\u015fsizlik de art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00c7in’in sorunlu emlak sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde yeniden ba\u015flayan \u00e7alkant\u0131lar ve “hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131” yaratan ekonomik veriler, ekonominin istikrar\u0131na ili\u015fkin korkular\u0131 k\u00f6r\u00fcklerken, krizin Alman mallar\u0131na olan talebi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

\n
ET\u0130KETLER<\/div>\n
\n Almanya
\n Ekonomik B\u00fcy\u00fcme\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sanayisi yabanc\u0131 rekabetten olumsuz etkilenen Almanya’n\u0131n, jeopolitik \u00e7eki\u015fmelere kar\u015f\u0131 savunmas\u0131z kalmas\u0131 dikkati \u00e7ekiyor. \u00dclkenin iklimin…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2410,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[501,661,3088,892,3089],"class_list":["post-2409","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi-haberleri","tag-alman","tag-bekleniyor","tag-durgunlugun","tag-ekonomisindeki","tag-surmesi"],"yoast_head":"\nAlman ekonomisindeki durgunlu\u011fun s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor - Es-Exchange Ekonomi Haberleri<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=2409\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Alman ekonomisindeki durgunlu\u011fun s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor - 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