{"id":5103,"date":"2023-12-14T15:50:54","date_gmt":"2023-12-14T12:50:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=5103"},"modified":"2023-12-14T15:50:54","modified_gmt":"2023-12-14T12:50:54","slug":"fedin-gelecek-yil-faiz-indirimlerine-baslamasi-bekleniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=5103","title":{"rendered":"Fed’in gelecek y\u0131l faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flamas\u0131 bekleniyor"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\n\tABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), politika faizini beklentilere paralel de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyerek 22 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesi olan y\u00fczde 5,25-5,50 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutarken, para piyasalar\u0131ndaki fiyatlamalarda, Fed’in y\u00fczde 80 ihtimalle martta faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131, 2024 genelinde de 4 veya 5 kez faiz indirimine gidebilece\u011fi tahminleri a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tGe\u00e7en y\u0131l mart ay\u0131nda ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 “\u015fahin” ad\u0131mlarla politika faizini 22 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131karan Fed, enflasyondaki olumlu seyir ve i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki so\u011fuma i\u015faretleri sonras\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 y\u0131l\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ilk kez “g\u00fcvercin” mesaj verdi.<\/p>\n

\n\tFederal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi d\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini y\u00fczde 5,25-5,50 seviyesinde sabit tutarken, karar metninde g\u00f6r\u00fclen de\u011fi\u015fiklikler “enflasyon endi\u015felerinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131” \u015feklinde yorumland\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tFed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell, karar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmede, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde politika faizinin muhtemelen zirvede veya zirveye yak\u0131n oldu\u011funa inand\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n

\n\tFederal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi’nin bu toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimlerini tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade eden Powell, Banka yetkililerinin, faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n daha da art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 uygun bulmamalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 masadan kald\u0131rmak da istemediklerini bildirdi.<\/p>\n

\n\tS\u00f6z konusu geli\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan para piyasalar\u0131ndaki fiyatlamalarda, Fed’in y\u00fczde 80 ihtimalle martta faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131, 2024 genelinde de 4 veya 5 kez faiz indirimine gidebilece\u011fi tahminleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u0130\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 so\u011fuma belirtileri g\u00f6stermeye devam ediyor<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tGe\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere g\u00f6re, ABD’de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam, grevdeki otomotiv i\u015f\u00e7ilerinin i\u015flerine d\u00f6nmesinin de etkisiyle kas\u0131mda 199 bin ki\u015fi artarak beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131. ABD’de i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 da y\u00fczde 3,9’dan 3,7’ye d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 ekimde bir \u00f6nceki aya k\u0131yasla 617 bin azalarak 8 milyon 733 bine geriledi.<\/p>\n

\n\tAnalistler, piyasa beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n, Mart 2021’den bu zamana kadarki en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye indi\u011fini, bu durumun y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc talebini azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bir g\u00f6stergesi oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00dclkede, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 kas\u0131mda 103 bin ki\u015fiyle piyasa beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. ADP \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 verisine g\u00f6re, kas\u0131mda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00fccreti y\u00fczde 5,6 artt\u0131. Eyl\u00fcl 2021’den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fini kaydeden s\u00f6z konusu \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131, ekimde y\u00fczde 5,7 olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

\n\tB\u00f6ylece, ABD’de JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 verilerinin ard\u0131ndan ADP \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 verileri de i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki so\u011fumay\u0131 destekleyici nitelikte oldu. Analistler, ABD’de \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131ndaki yava\u015flaman\u0131n da dikkati \u00e7ekti\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n

\n\tBeklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelen tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisine kar\u015f\u0131n ABD ekonomisinde “yumu\u015fak ini\u015f” senaryosunun \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten analistlere g\u00f6re, ABD’de enflasyonun yava\u015flamaya devam etmesi de Fed’in “g\u00fcvercin” mesajlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesinde etkili oldu.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00d6te yandan, ABD’de T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE), kas\u0131mda ayl\u0131k bazda de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermeyece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki piyasa beklentisinin aksine y\u00fczde 0,1 artt\u0131. Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda ise y\u00fczde 3,1 art\u0131\u015fla \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler do\u011frultusunda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Yava\u015flamaya devam eden y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon 5 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini kaydetti.<\/p>\n

\n\tDe\u011fi\u015fken enerji ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7ermeyen \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ise beklentilere paralel olarak kas\u0131mda ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,3 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 4 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Bu d\u00f6nemde \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda son 2 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinde kalmaya devam etti.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi ise kas\u0131mda ayl\u0131k bazda de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermedi, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 0,9 art\u0131\u015fla beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tFed’in gelecek y\u0131l toplamda 75 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimine gidebilece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tEkonomiye ili\u015fkin tahminlerini de a\u00e7\u0131klayan Fed, federal fon oran\u0131na ili\u015fkin tahminini bu y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in eyl\u00fclde \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc y\u00fczde 5,6 seviyesinden y\u00fczde 5,4 seviyesine \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n

\n\tFed, y\u0131l boyunca her iki toplant\u0131da bir ekonomiye ili\u015fkin tahminlerinin yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir “projeksiyon” tablosu yay\u0131nl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\n\tBu tabloda Fed’in federal fon oran\u0131na ili\u015fkin 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 tahmini y\u00fczde 5,1’den y\u00fczde 4,6’ya, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,9’dan y\u00fczde 3,6’ya indirildi.<\/p>\n

\n\tFed’in 2026 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin faiz \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc ise y\u00fczde 2,9 olarak korundu. Uzun d\u00f6nem ortalama faiz beklentisi de y\u00fczde 2,5’te tutuldu.<\/p>\n

\n\tS\u00f6z konusu tahminler, Fed’in gelecek y\u0131l toplamda 75 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimine gidebilece\u011fini i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

\n\tBankan\u0131n enflasyon tahminleri ise bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,3’ten y\u00fczde 2,8’e, 2024 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,5’ten y\u00fczde 2,4’e ve 2025 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,2’den y\u00fczde 2,1’e indirildi. Enflasyon tahmini 2026 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2 olarak belirlendi.<\/p>\n

\n\tDe\u011fi\u015fken enerji ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7ermeyen \u00e7ekirdek enflasyona ili\u015fkin tahminler de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyona y\u00f6nelik \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,7’den y\u00fczde 3,2’ye, 2024 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,6’dan y\u00fczde 2,4’e ve 2025 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,3’ten y\u00fczde 2,2’ye indirildi. Fed’in 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon tahmini ise y\u00fczde 2’de sabit tutuldu.<\/p>\n

\n\tB\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri ise bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,1’den y\u00fczde 2,6’ya y\u00fckseltilirken, gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 1,5’ten y\u00fczde 1,4’e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. B\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 1,8’de b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131, 2026 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 1,8’den y\u00fczde 1,9’a \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131na ili\u015fkin tahminler ise bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,8, gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4,1 ve 2025 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4,1’de sabit tutuldu. 2026 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc ise y\u00fczde 4’ten y\u00fczde 4,1’e y\u00fckseltildi.
\n\t\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n
ET\u0130KETLER<\/div>\n
\n FED
\n Faiz\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), politika faizini beklentilere paralel de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyerek 22 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesi olan…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[5394,661,287,1576,164,5393,383],"class_list":["post-5103","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi-haberleri","tag-baslamasi","tag-bekleniyor","tag-faiz","tag-fedin","tag-gelecek","tag-indirimlerine","tag-yil"],"yoast_head":"\nFed'in gelecek y\u0131l faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flamas\u0131 bekleniyor - Es-Exchange Ekonomi Haberleri<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=5103\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fed'in gelecek y\u0131l faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flamas\u0131 bekleniyor - 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