{"id":5210,"date":"2023-12-20T12:29:25","date_gmt":"2023-12-20T09:29:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=5210"},"modified":"2023-12-20T12:29:25","modified_gmt":"2023-12-20T09:29:25","slug":"2024te-faizlerin-yonu-ne-olacak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=5210","title":{"rendered":"2024’te faizlerin y\u00f6n\u00fc ne olacak?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\n\tD\u00fcnya ekonomisi 2023’\u00fc tedarik zinciri sorunlar\u0131, \u00c7in’de beklenenden yava\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclen toparlanma, y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu bask\u0131lamak i\u00e7in h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gitti\u011fi bir y\u0131l olarak geride b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00d6zellikle geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerde para politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olurken, 2024 merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu hedefledikleri seviyeye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme amac\u0131yla “faizleri uzun s\u00fcre ve y\u00fcksek tutmak” i\u00e7in hassas bir denge g\u00f6zettikleri y\u0131l olacak.<\/p>\n

\n\tS&P Global Market Intelligence K\u00fcresel Ekonomi Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Ken Wattret, bu y\u0131l d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde ya\u015fanan baz\u0131 zorluklar\u0131n iyile\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ise 2024’te devam edece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\n\tEnflasyonun farkl\u0131 \u00fclkelerde ve farkl\u0131 h\u0131zda geriledi\u011fini aktaran Wattret, enflasyonda genel e\u011filimin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu\u011funu belirterek, “Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan, \u015fu anda faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funlukla geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Para politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n etkisini hen\u00fcz tam olarak g\u00f6rmedik ve bu biraz zaman alacak. Y\u00fcksek faizler, 2024’te ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi bask\u0131layacak. Bu bir denge. Merkez bankalar\u0131 ekonomileri yava\u015flatmaya, ayn\u0131 zamanda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 ayarlayarak ekonomileri resesyona s\u00fcr\u00fcklememeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bunu ba\u015farmak \u00e7ok zor. Tarihe bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, merkez bankas\u0131 faizlerinin \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmesi resesyonlara yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Avrupa’da \u015fu an benzer ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nday\u0131z ama etkisi daha az.” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

\n\tWattret, ABD’de yeni bir art\u0131\u015fa gitmek yerine faizin nispeten k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek seviyede tutuldu\u011funu belirterek, ABD ve Avrupa’da faizin zirvede oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcklerini anlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tMerkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n politika faizini y\u00fckseltmeye devam etmek yerine nispeten y\u00fcksek seviyede tutarak bir denge kurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen Wattret, konu\u015fmas\u0131na \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na devam etmeleri halinde, ekonomilerin resesyona girme tehlikesi \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daha y\u00fcksek olacakt\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, piyasalar \u015fu an 2024’e y\u00f6nelik erken ve derin faiz indirimi beklentisi i\u00e7inde. Biz bu beklentilerin de biraz erken oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n en az\u0131ndan 2024 ortas\u0131na kadar k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz ve faizleri art\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131 kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmelerini pek olas\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz. Faizlerde agresif bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, muhtemelen derin bir resesyon ortam\u0131nda olabilirdi \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc b\u00f6yle bir ortamda enflasyon \u00e7ok daha h\u0131zla gerilemi\u015f olurdu. Ancak merkez bankalar\u0131 enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n devam edebilece\u011fi konusunda da endi\u015feli. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan, bu bir risk senaryosu ve yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor.”<\/p>\n

\n\t“2024’te pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklemek fazla iyimserlik olur”<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tWattret, enflasyon ve y\u00fcksek faizlerin ekonomilere farkl\u0131 \u015fekilde yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zellikle y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n Avrupa’da b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ABD’de ise ekonominin s\u00fcrpriz \u015fekilde daha diren\u00e7li oldu\u011funu dile getirdi.<\/p>\n

\n\tFaizin ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerindeki etkisinin devam etti\u011fine dikkati \u00e7eken Wattret, “Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla 2024’\u00fcn pozitif bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme hamlesi getirece\u011fini ummak muhtemelen fazla iyimserlik olur. Yine de, umuyoruz ki bu zorluklardan baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n iyile\u015fmesini ve 2024 sonuna yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn iyile\u015fmeye ba\u015flayabilir.” dedi.<\/p>\n

\n\tWattret, k\u00fcresel ekonomide bir resesyon beklemediklerini ancak b\u00f6lgeden b\u00f6lgeye de\u011fi\u015fiklikler oldu\u011funu ifade ederek, “ABD ekonomisi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti ancak \u015fu an y\u00fcksek faizin hane halk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisini g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir ge\u00e7i\u015f a\u015famas\u0131nda. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme art\u0131k yava\u015flayacak ama resesyon beklemiyoruz. Avrupa’da ise zaten resesyon ko\u015fullar\u0131na sahibiz. Bat\u0131 Avrupa’n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu durgunluk i\u00e7inde. Bu durum Avrupa’n\u0131n k\u0131smen ABD’de g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen ek bir \u015fok ya\u015famas\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor ki bu da Rusya’n\u0131n Ukrayna’daki sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f. Bu nedenle, Avrupa hali haz\u0131rda resesyona yak\u0131n bir ortamdayken, ABD \u015fu ana kadar nispeten iyi durumda.” \u015feklinde konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

\n\tAsya’da ise enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretmesi nedeniyle merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n reaksiyonunun da daha az oldu\u011funu anlatan Wattret, “Asya ekonomilerinde daha az etki g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc ve bu nedenle Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesinin 2024’teki k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin itici g\u00fcc\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.” dedi.<\/p>\n

\n\tABD ve Avrupa’da kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde keskin yava\u015flama<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tFitch Ratings Ba\u015fekonomisti Brian Coulton da para politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n gecikmeli etkilerinin, krediler yava\u015flad\u0131k\u00e7a, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar zay\u0131flad\u0131k\u00e7a ve hane halk\u0131 geliri ve kar b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck\u00e7e ABD ekonomisi \u00fczerinde 2024’te bask\u0131 yarataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getirdi.<\/p>\n

\n\tEnflasyon gerilerken ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n (Fed) faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmede yava\u015f davranmas\u0131 nedeniyle reel faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselece\u011fini belirten Coulton, \u015f\u00f6yle konu\u015ftu:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Avro B\u00f6lgesi man\u015fet enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve reel \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki toparlanman\u0131n t\u00fcketime katk\u0131 sa\u011flamas\u0131yla 2024’te sadece y\u00fczeysel bir toparlanma g\u00f6recek. Parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n gecikmeli etkisi ABD ve Avrupa’daki zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ortak nedeni olacak ve her ikisi de son 9 ayda kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde keskin bir yava\u015flama g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ancak ABD’de t\u00fcketim giderek yava\u015flarken, Avrupa’da t\u00fcketimin hafif bir ivme kazanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u00c7in ekonomisi ise hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki t\u00fcketimin azalmas\u0131yla yava\u015flayacak. \u00c7in ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2024’te konut piyasas\u0131ndaki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri dikkate alarak y\u00fczde 4,5 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyoruz. \u00c7in’de ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ihracattaki gerileme, zay\u0131f t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven ortam\u0131 ve konut in\u015fas\u0131ndaki keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn etkileri vuracak.”<\/p>\n

\n\tCoulton, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,5 y\u0131ld\u0131r verdikleri b\u00fcy\u00fck m\u00fccadelenin ard\u0131ndan “erken bir zafer ilan etme konusunda \u00e7ok temkinli” davranaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ederek, “Bu nedenle faizlerde yava\u015f bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe gideceklerdir. Merkez bankalar\u0131, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye zarar vermekten ziyade, enflasyonu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir \u015fekilde y\u00fczde 2 hedeflerine geri getirememekten endi\u015fe duyuyor.” dedi.<\/p>\n

\n\t“Geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerde \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon \u0131srarc\u0131 olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor”<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\t\u0130ngiltere’nin en eski ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z ekonomik ara\u015ft\u0131rma enstit\u00fcs\u00fc Ulusal Ekonomik ve Sosyal Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (NIESR) Ba\u015fekonomisti Ahmet \u0130hsan Kaya da geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerde merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirimini ne zaman ve hangi h\u0131zda yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 2024’te ana g\u00fcndem maddelerinden olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\n\tGeli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerde faizlerin zirve yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Kaya, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirimlerini de\u011ferlendirmeden \u00f6nce enflasyonun hedefledikleri seviyeye ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 geri gelece\u011fini ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131ndan ne kadar etkilenece\u011fini g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in bekleyece\u011fini anlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tKaya, man\u015fet enflasyonun g\u0131da ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f nedeniyle \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerdeki \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun \u0131srarc\u0131 olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirterek, “Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n politika faizini uzun bir s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun da 2024’te k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini bask\u0131layaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Enflasyondaki bu g\u00f6receli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve zay\u0131f ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme piyasalar\u0131n erken faiz indirimini fiyatlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Enflasyonda gerileme s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerdeki otoriteler 2024’\u00fcn ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 para politikalar\u0131n\u0131 geri \u00e7ekmeye ba\u015flayacakt\u0131r ancak \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon hala hedeflenen seviyelere g\u00f6re \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fundan faiz indirimlerinin yava\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.” de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n

\n\tKaya, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 nedeniyle k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin etkilenece\u011fini ancak geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir resesyon beklemediklerini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tBuna ra\u011fmen g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn \u00fclkeden \u00fclkeye de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fine dikkati \u00e7eken Kaya, \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n

\n\t“ABD ekonomisi nispeten g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam etmesine ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullara diren\u00e7 g\u00f6stermesine ra\u011fmen, Avro B\u00f6lgesi ve \u00f6zellikle Almanya durgunluk belirtileri g\u00f6steriyor. Geli\u015fmekte olan piyasalar geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerden daha iyi performans g\u00f6steriyor, ancak bu ekonomilerde de Gayri Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi yava\u015fl\u0131yor. \u00c7in ve Hindistan, sadece y\u00fcksek faizler nedeniyle de\u011fil yap\u0131sal fakt\u00f6rlerin de etkisiyle son on y\u0131llardakinden daha yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek. Jeopolitik b\u00f6l\u00fcnme ve zay\u0131f ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme nedeniyle yava\u015flayan k\u00fcresel ticaretle, bu \u00fclkelerin ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak i\u00e7 talebe ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak. \u00c7in’deki yava\u015flama ve y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131nda hane halk\u0131 bor\u00e7lulu\u011fu \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6lgesel ve k\u00fcresel etkiye sahip olabilir ve 2024’de bu geli\u015fmelerin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor.”<\/p>\n

\n\tEnerji ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fczde 30’una yol a\u00e7\u0131yor<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tLizbon Ekonomi ve Y\u00f6netim Okulu Ekonomi Profes\u00f6r\u00fc Antonio Afonso, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n politika faizini uzun bir s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131ndan emin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek, “\u00d6zellikle ABD’de se\u00e7imlerin yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fczde, bu s\u00fcrenin (faizin y\u00fcksek tutulmas\u0131) \u00e7ok uzun olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorum. Faizlerde geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6rmemek, (ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan) olduk\u00e7a zararl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.” dedi.<\/p>\n

\n\tAvrupa \u0130mar ve Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131 (EBRD) Ge\u00e7i\u015f D\u00f6nemi Etkisi ve K\u00fcresel Ekonomi Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Alexander Plekhanov ise geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerde enflasyonun b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geriledi\u011fini ve bunun \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\n\tEnerji ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bir\u00e7ok ekonomide enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n hali haz\u0131rda y\u00fczde 30’una yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getiren Plekhanov \u015funlara dikkati \u00e7ekti:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Dezenflasyonun h\u0131z\u0131 otoritelerin birka\u00e7 ay \u00f6nceki beklentileriyle b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde uyumlu. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede odak noktas\u0131 genellikle merkez bankalar\u0131 olsa da maliye politikalar\u0131 \u00fcretim ve fiyatlar\u0131 \u015fekillendirmede \u00f6nemli bir yol oynuyor. Bu y\u00fczden, para politikas\u0131 mali politika tercihlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak. Bu tercihler \u00fclkeden \u00fclkeye de\u011fi\u015firken, baz\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmetler bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015flara, kamu bor\u00e7 stoku y\u00fcksek olan di\u011fer \u00fclkelere k\u0131yasla daha kolay dayanabilir. Daha y\u00fcksek kamu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, muhtemelen daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz anlam\u0131na gelecektir.”<\/p>\n

\n
ET\u0130KETLER<\/div>\n
\n Merkez Bankas\u0131
\n Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131
\n FED
\n ECB
\n Enflasyon\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

D\u00fcnya ekonomisi 2023’\u00fc tedarik zinciri sorunlar\u0131, \u00c7in’de beklenenden yava\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclen toparlanma, y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve merkez…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":367,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2876,5459,439,5460],"class_list":["post-5210","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi-haberleri","tag-2024te","tag-faizlerin","tag-olacak","tag-yonu"],"yoast_head":"\n2024'te faizlerin y\u00f6n\u00fc ne olacak? - Es-Exchange Ekonomi Haberleri<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=5210\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2024'te faizlerin y\u00f6n\u00fc ne olacak? 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