{"id":5300,"date":"2023-12-22T12:26:34","date_gmt":"2023-12-22T09:26:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=5300"},"modified":"2023-12-22T12:26:34","modified_gmt":"2023-12-22T09:26:34","slug":"turkiye-ekonomisinde-makrofinansal-istikrar-riskleri-azaliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=5300","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde makrofinansal istikrar riskleri azal\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\n\tFitch Ratings K\u0131demli Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc ve T\u00fcrkiye Analisti Erich Arispe Morales, T\u00fcrkiye’de se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 ya\u015fanan politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine dikkati \u00e7ekerek, “Politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin yak\u0131n vadeli makrofinansal istikrar risklerini ve \u00f6demeler dengesi bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.” dedi.<\/p>\n

\n\tBu de\u011fi\u015fimi, sadece Haziran 2023’ten beri politika faizinde yap\u0131lan art\u0131\u015flar olarak g\u00f6rmemek gerekti\u011fini belirten Morales, \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Se\u00e7ici kredi ve niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma da dahil olmak \u00fczere parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma, beklentimizden daha b\u00fcy\u00fck ve h\u0131zl\u0131 oldu. Bu durum, i\u00e7 talebin yava\u015flamas\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flarken, lira \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131lar\u0131 hafifletiyor ve b\u00f6ylece uluslararas\u0131 rezervlerdeki toparlanmay\u0131 destekliyor, enflasyon beklentilerindeki \u00f6nceki bozulmay\u0131 da durduruyor. Dahas\u0131, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan yeni politikan\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc ve \u00f6nden y\u00fcklemeli para politikas\u0131 d\u00fczenlemesini kamuoyu \u00f6n\u00fcnde onaylad\u0131.”<\/p>\n

\n\tMorales, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan para politikas\u0131 ve Avro B\u00f6lgesi gibi T\u00fcrkiye’nin ana ticaret ortaklar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin birle\u015fik etkisine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2023’te \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fckleri y\u00fczde 4,1’den 2024’te y\u00fczde 2,5’e yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 beklediklerini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n

\n\tEkonomiyi dengelemek i\u00e7in muhtemelen uzun bir s\u00fcre s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funun gerekli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen Morales, “Mart 2024’teki yerel se\u00e7imler, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin mevcut s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme ve politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini baltalayan se\u00e7im te\u015fvik \u00f6nlemlerinden ka\u00e7\u0131nma konusundaki kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve siyasi alan\u0131n\u0131 test edebilir.” de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n

\n\tFaiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n etkisi gecikmeli gelecek<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tS&P Global Market Intelligence K\u00fcresel Ekonomi Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Ken Wattret da T\u00fcrkiye’nin ekonomi politikas\u0131nda en temel de\u011fi\u015fikliklerden birinin Merkez Bankas\u0131’ndaki liderlik oldu\u011funu belirterek, bunun net bir \u015fekilde \u00f6nemli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u015eu an enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in para biriminin istikrara kavu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131n hedeflendi\u011fini aktaran Wattret, cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131ndaki dengesizli\u011fi azaltmak i\u00e7in de i\u00e7 talebi yava\u015flatmak amac\u0131yla politika faizinin y\u00fckseltildi\u011fini kaydetti.<\/p>\n

\n\tWattret, “Bu fakt\u00f6rlerin birle\u015fiminin yak\u0131n vadede ekonomik aktivite \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla 2024’te ekonomide olduk\u00e7a zorlu bir durum s\u00f6z konusu olacak. Ancak, enflasyonu dengelemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak ve ayn\u0131 zamanda para biriminde de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in bunlar gerekli ko\u015fullar. Ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmam\u0131z gerek. Bu zorluklar\u0131 di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131nda da g\u00f6rd\u00fck, enflasyonu sistem d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakmak zaman al\u0131yor. Enflasyon, faizi y\u00fckseltince h\u0131zla sistem d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lam\u0131yor.” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

\n\tT\u00fcrkiye’nin m\u00fccadele etti\u011fi sorunlar\u0131n bir\u00e7ok di\u011fer ekonomide de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirten Wattret, k\u00fcresel ekonomide on y\u0131llard\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen bir enflasyon \u015foku ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkati \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n

\n\t“Enflasyon kademeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve para biriminin istikrara kavu\u015fmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz”<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tWattret, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon \u015fokuyla, para politikas\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe giderek m\u00fccadele etmek zorunda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ederek, \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n

\n\t“T\u00fcrkiye’de bu biraz daha zaman ald\u0131. Bence kilit nokta enflasyon sorunuyla m\u00fccadele, d\u0131\u015f dengesizlik ve cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir miktar kredibilite tesis etmek ve para birimine destek sa\u011flamak. (T\u00fcrkiye’de) Para politikas\u0131ndaki bu y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi bizi daha istikrarl\u0131 bir ortama g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik aktivite \u00fczerindeki etkisi gecikmeli olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011finden, maalesef 2024 t\u00fcm bu a\u00e7\u0131lardan olduk\u00e7a zorlu bir y\u0131l olacak. Ama enflasyondaki e\u011filimin kademeli olarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket etmeye ve para biriminin istikrara kavu\u015fmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, y\u0131l ilerledik\u00e7e ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn iyile\u015fmeye ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bir sonraki y\u0131l\u0131n daha pozitif olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 umuyoruz. Ancak k\u00fcresel ekonomi de \u00e7e\u015fitli r\u00fczgarlarla m\u00fccadele ediyor ve herhangi bir ekonominin i\u00e7 ekonomik zorluklardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yolunu olu\u015fturma kabiliyeti olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Bu durum her yerde ayn\u0131 oldu\u011fundan, 2024 d\u00fcnya genelinde ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan zorlu bir ortama sahne olacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.”<\/p>\n

\n\t“Bir\u00e7ok merkez bankas\u0131 enflasyon \u015fokuna ge\u00e7 tepki verdi”<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tWattret, bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkede merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n kredibilitesinin sorguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederek, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n 2021 ve 2022’deki enflasyon \u015fokuna verdikleri tepkinin olduk\u00e7a ge\u00e7 oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n

\n\tD\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve istikrarl\u0131 bir enflasyon oran\u0131 hedefleyen merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n kredibilitelerini tesis etmelerinin yolunun enflasyonu azaltan ve enflasyon beklentilerini nispeten iyi bir \u015fekilde sabitleyen para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funu sa\u011flamak oldu\u011funun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izen Wattret, \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Yani kredibilitenizi sonu\u00e7lara g\u00f6re olu\u015fturursunuz ve bu sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 almak zaman al\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, (T\u00fcrkiye’de) para birimini desteklemek ve enflasyonu istikrara kavu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in gerekli mekanizmalar \u015fu anda mevcut g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor, ancak bu biraz zaman alacak. Bu nedenle Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n plana sad\u0131k kalmas\u0131 ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n d\u00f6rt bir yan\u0131ndaki merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi para politikas\u0131nda bir dereceye kadar k\u0131s\u0131tlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi \u00f6nemli.”<\/p>\n

\n
ET\u0130KETLER<\/div>\n
\n Enflasyon
\n Faiz
\n Ekonomik D\u00fczenlemeler\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fitch Ratings K\u0131demli Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc ve T\u00fcrkiye Analisti Erich Arispe Morales, T\u00fcrkiye’de se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 ya\u015fanan politika…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5120,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[5529,1108,4895,5527,5528,538],"class_list":["post-5300","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi-haberleri","tag-azaliyor","tag-ekonomisinde","tag-istikrar","tag-makrofinansal","tag-riskleri","tag-turkiye"],"yoast_head":"\nT\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde makrofinansal istikrar riskleri azal\u0131yor - Es-Exchange Ekonomi Haberleri<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=5300\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde makrofinansal istikrar riskleri azal\u0131yor - 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