{"id":5746,"date":"2024-01-10T00:48:24","date_gmt":"2024-01-09T21:48:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=5746"},"modified":"2024-01-10T00:48:24","modified_gmt":"2024-01-09T21:48:24","slug":"petrol-fiyatlarinin-70-90-dolar-araliginda-seyretmesi-bekleniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=5746","title":{"rendered":"Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 70-90 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda seyretmesi bekleniyor"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\n\tBu y\u0131la ili\u015fkin fiyat \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri ile arz ve talep beklentilerine dayand\u0131ran JP Morgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs ve Morgan Stanley gibi ABD’nin finansal merkezi Wall Street’in \u00f6nde gelen yat\u0131r\u0131m bankalar\u0131, arz kesintilerine yol a\u00e7an jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin ani fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na sebep olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

\n\tPetrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 2024’te b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnde bulunan JP Morgan, Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n ortalama 83 dolar olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor. Banka, bu tahminini ABD’de petrol talebinin diren\u00e7li olmas\u0131, geli\u015fen piyasalarda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve Avrupa piyasalar\u0131nda istikrar beklentilerine dayand\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\n\tGoldman Sachs da k\u00fcresel resesyon riskindeki azalman\u0131n petrol talebini olumlu y\u00f6nde destekleyece\u011fini, ABD kaynakl\u0131 \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ise petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

\n\tBrent petrol\u00fcn, bu y\u0131l 70-90 dolar band\u0131nda seyredece\u011fini tahmin eden Goldman Sachs, fiyatlar\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 81 dolar ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 yakalayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

\n\tMorgan Stanley de k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n talepteki y\u00fckseli\u015fin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ece\u011fi beklentisiyle Brent petrol\u00fcn bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar seviyesinde seyredece\u011fini, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ece\u011fini tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n

\n\tPetrol fiyatlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin en y\u00fcksek tahminin sahibi Bank of America, Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l ortalama 90 dolar civar\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. En d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tahmine sahip finansal kurulu\u015f Citigroup da ABD’de artan petrol \u00fcretimi ile OPEC+ grubunun \u00fcretim kesintilerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi beklentisiyle bu y\u0131l Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na ortalama 75 dolar olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n

\n\tUluslararas\u0131 kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Fitch Ratings ise OPEC+ grubunun arz \u00fczerinde kurdu\u011fu bask\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131na kadar petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc destekleyece\u011fini belirterek, Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131 bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in ortalama 80 dolar olarak revize etmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

\n\tArz ile talebin dengede oldu\u011fu bir piyasa bekleniyor<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tHollanda merkezli ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k \u015firketi International Commodity Consulting (ICC) Emtia Dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 Robbert Marneffe, AA muhabirine, bu y\u0131l, OPEC+ grubunun kesinti kararlar\u0131, ABD’nin faiz indirimlerinde “yumu\u015fak ini\u015f” a\u015famas\u0131na ne zaman ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 ve \u00fclkenin petrol \u00fcretiminde yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ivmeyi devam ettirip ettiremeyece\u011finin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\n\tMarneffe, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00c7in’in ekonomisini canland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in te\u015fvik paketleri kullan\u0131p kullanmayaca\u011f\u0131 ve \u00fclkedeki rafinerilerinin talep art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ile jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin de bu ba\u015fl\u0131klar aras\u0131nda yer alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek, “2024’te petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 73 ile 93 dolar aras\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u00e7ok geni\u015f bir bantta seyretmeyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum, ancak bu aral\u0131kta s\u0131k fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na \u015fahit olabiliriz.” dedi.<\/p>\n

\n\tUluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131n\u0131n (IEA) bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,3 milyon varillik arz fazlas\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin tahminine at\u0131fta bulunan Marneffe, s\u00f6z konusu miktar\u0131n IEA’n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, arz ve talebin \u00e7o\u011funlukla dengede kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tMarneffe, talebin beklenenden \u00e7ok daha uzun bir s\u00fcre artmaya devam edece\u011fine dikkati \u00e7ekerek, “Birka\u00e7 y\u0131l boyunca arz ve talep makas\u0131ndaki a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n olduk\u00e7a dar olaca\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yorum. Petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 zaten talebin daha y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi Asya ve Afrika gibi b\u00f6lgelere do\u011fru kay\u0131yor. \u00d6te yandan Avrupa, enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm \u00e7abalar\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda petrol ve do\u011fal gaz\u0131 portf\u00f6ylerinden bu kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 ve olmas\u0131 gerekenden \u00e7ok daha erken \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131n\u0131n bir bedeli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rebilir.” dedi.<\/p>\n

\n\tOPEC+ grubunun \u00fcretim kesintilerine devam etmesinin uzun vadede grubun pazar pay\u0131n\u0131 azaltarak piyasa y\u00f6netimini kaybetmesine yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015felerine de de\u011finen Marneffe, “ABD kaya petrol\u00fc \u00fcretimi zirve seviyelerine ula\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra duraklama s\u00fcrecine girdi\u011finde, OPEC grup birli\u011fini korumay\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131p piyasalar\u0131n g\u00fcvenini yeniden sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f olursa piyasalar\u0131n hakimiyetini ciddi anlamda elinde tutabilir.” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

\n\tTalep, do\u011fas\u0131ndaki belirsizlik nedeniyle bu y\u0131l da fiyatlar\u0131 etkileyen esas unsur olacak<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tABD merkezli enerji enformasyon \u015firketi Energy Intelligence Group Petrol Piyasalar\u0131 Ekonomisti Julien Mathonniere de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar, sava\u015flar veya ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 gibi jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin uzun vadeli e\u011filimler olu\u015fturmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak fiyatlar\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede etkiledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\n\tMathonniere, \u0130srail-Filistin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda endi\u015fe edildi\u011fi gibi bir etki olu\u015fturmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz’de devam eden gerilimin ise Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda 4-5 dolarl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015fa neden olsa da fiyatlar\u0131n bu y\u00fckseli\u015fi korumakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkati \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n

\n\tPiyasalardaki fiyat olu\u015fumunu belirleyen as\u0131l fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn ticareti uzun d\u00f6nemli k\u0131s\u0131tlayan \u00f6nlemler oldu\u011funu vurgulayan Mathonniere, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019deki geli\u015fmelerin ani dalgalanmalar yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak Rusya\u2019n\u0131n petrol ticaretine getirilen yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n piyasalarda daha kal\u0131c\u0131 etkisinin oldu\u011funu kaydetti.<\/p>\n

\n\tABD, Brezilya ve Guyana’n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi OPEC+ grubu d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fcreticilerin g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol kapasitelerini 2024’te 1,5 milyon varil, 2025’te ise 1,4 milyon varil art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini an\u0131msatan Mathonniere, s\u00f6z konusu ilave kapasitelerin sonraki 2 y\u0131lda talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kar\u015f\u0131layarak arz endi\u015felerini hafifletece\u011fini dile getirdi.\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b\u200b<\/p>\n

\n\tMathonniere, piyasalardaki 2024 petrol fiyatlar\u0131 beklentilerine ili\u015fkin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmede, “Salg\u0131n sonras\u0131 toparlanma s\u00fcrecinin sona ermesi ve ekonomik bask\u0131lar\u0131n giderek artmas\u0131 nedeniyle talebin g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1 milyon varil civar\u0131ndaki tarihi normlara geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Salg\u0131n sonras\u0131 seyahat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak jet yak\u0131t\u0131 ve LPG veya nafta gibi petrokimya \u00fcr\u00fcnleri talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131na bir miktar destek oluyor. Talep taraf\u0131ndaki bu geli\u015fmeler, fiyatlar\u0131 75-85 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tutacakt\u0131r, ancak OPEC+ grubuna da Ekim 2022’den bu yana devam eden kesintilerini gev\u015fetip \u00fcretimini art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir alan b\u0131rakacakt\u0131r.” dedi.<\/p>\n

\n\tOPEC’in \u00fcretim kapasitesi ile ilgili bir problemi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, aksine arz fazlal\u0131\u011f\u0131 problemiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011funu belirten Mathonniere, \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Halihaz\u0131rda g\u00fcnl\u00fck 5 milyon varilden fazla olan yedek kapasitenin yeterli olmas\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00c7in stoklar\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r. Gelecek y\u0131l yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,5 milyon varillik OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131 arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahmin ediyoruz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, OPEC’in 2024’te talepte g\u00fcnl\u00fck 2,25 milyon varil art\u0131\u015f tahmini ger\u00e7ekle\u015fse bile Suudi Arabistan’\u0131n mevcut \u00fcretim kesintilerinin ciddi oranda azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.”<\/p>\n

\n
ET\u0130KETLER<\/div>\n
\n Petrol\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bu y\u0131la ili\u015fkin fiyat \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri ile arz ve talep beklentilerine dayand\u0131ran JP…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":656,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[5848,661,193,1434,49,5849],"class_list":["post-5746","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi-haberleri","tag-araliginda","tag-bekleniyor","tag-dolar","tag-fiyatlarinin","tag-petrol","tag-seyretmesi"],"yoast_head":"\nPetrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 70-90 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda seyretmesi bekleniyor - Es-Exchange Ekonomi Haberleri<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=5746\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 70-90 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda seyretmesi bekleniyor - 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