{"id":6408,"date":"2024-02-08T12:46:40","date_gmt":"2024-02-08T09:46:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=6408"},"modified":"2024-02-08T12:46:40","modified_gmt":"2024-02-08T09:46:40","slug":"merkez-bankasi-enflasyon-tahminini-acikladi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=6408","title":{"rendered":"Merkez Bankas\u0131 enflasyon tahminini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\n\tT\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Karahan, Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u0130dare Merkezi’nde d\u00fczenledi\u011fi bilgilendirme toplant\u0131s\u0131nda, y\u0131l\u0131n 1. Enflasyon Raporu’nu payla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tOrta vadeli tahminler olu\u015fturulurken enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde belirgin bir iyile\u015fme sa\u011flanana kadar ara hedeflere ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde para politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclece\u011fi bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn esas al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Karahan, \u015fu ifadeleri kulland\u0131:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede 2024, 2025 ve 2026 y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminleri bir \u00f6nceki rapordaki haliyle korunmu\u015ftur. 2024 y\u0131l sonu tahmini y\u00fczde 36, 2025 y\u0131l sonu tahmini ise y\u00fczde 14 olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Tahmin aral\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n alt ve \u00fcst noktalar\u0131 da 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 30 ve 42, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 7 ve 21’e tekab\u00fcl etmektedir. Enflasyonun 2026 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 tek haneli seviyelere gerileyerek y\u00fczde 9 ile tamamlamas\u0131, orta vadede ise y\u00fczde 5 hedefinde istikrar kazanmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.”<\/p>\n

\n\t“May\u0131s sonras\u0131nda dezenflasyon d\u00f6nemine girece\u011fiz”<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tKarahan, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 tahminin korunmas\u0131nda, bir\u00e7ok fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn birbirini dengelemesinin etkili oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederek, “\u00dccret ayarlamalar\u0131 ve kamu harcamalar\u0131 nedeniyle, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 birinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u00f6nceki rapora g\u00f6re \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daha yukar\u0131da olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyoruz.” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

\n\tS\u0131k\u0131 para ve maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131n e\u015fg\u00fcd\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn katk\u0131s\u0131yla, i\u00e7 talepteki dengelenme s\u00fcrecinin devam edece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirdiklerini dile getiren Karahan, \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda, \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmini g\u00fcncellememiz 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon tahminimizi 0,4 puan art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 y\u00f6nde etkilemi\u015ftir. Buna ek olarak, birim i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc maliyetinin, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenin \u00fczerinde gelen \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 nedeniyle y\u00fckselmesi tahminimizi 1,5 puan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkilemi\u015ftir. G\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 ve T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 cinsi ithalat fiyatlar\u0131ndan gelen g\u00fcncellemelerin toplam etkisi ise 1,4 puand\u0131r. S\u00f6z konusu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkilere kar\u015f\u0131n, enflasyonun ana e\u011filimindeki iyile\u015fme tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkilemi\u015ftir.”<\/p>\n

\n\tParasal s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131na yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fcklerinden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa dikkati \u00e7eken Karahan, buna ek olarak politika duru\u015funun ara hedefler do\u011frultusunda, bir \u00f6nceki raporda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha uzun s\u00fcre korunacak olmas\u0131n\u0131n da ana e\u011filime olumlu yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tKarahan, “Bu unsurlar\u0131n etkisi, tahminlerimizi 3,2 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc y\u00f6nde olmu\u015ftur.” bilgisini payla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tTCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Karahan enflasyon ve para politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin ise \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmelerde bulundu:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda, mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ayl\u0131k enflasyonun ortalama olarak y\u00fczde 4’\u00fcn alt\u0131nda, ocak hari\u00e7 ise y\u00fczde 3 civar\u0131nda seyredece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Enflasyonun tepe noktas\u0131na ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 may\u0131s sonuna kadar, ocak ay\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi baz\u0131 ge\u00e7ici etkiler g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir. May\u0131s sonras\u0131nda, y\u0131ll\u0131k man\u015fet enflasyonda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6rece\u011fimiz, dezenflasyon d\u00f6nemine girece\u011fiz. Bu d\u00f6nemde olumlu y\u00f6ndeki baz etkileri ve daha \u00f6nemlisi enflasyonun ana e\u011filimindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn devam\u0131 etkili olacakt\u0131r. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, i\u00e7 talepteki dengelenmenin devam\u0131, \u00fccret g\u00fcncellemelerinin tamamlanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 ve man\u015fet enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn beklentilerde olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131 ilave iyile\u015fme \u00f6nemli rol oynayacakt\u0131r. B\u00f6ylelikle, mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ortalama ayl\u0131k enflasyonun \u00f6nce y\u00fczde 2,5’in alt\u0131na, y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde ise y\u00fczde 1,5 civar\u0131na gerileyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.”<\/p>\n

\n\tKarahan, hizmetlerdeki kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n da s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7erisinde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi ve parasal duru\u015fun hedeflerle uyumlu \u015fekilde y\u00f6netilmeye devam edilmesiyle enflasyonun ana e\u011filiminde tarihsel ortalamalara gerileme s\u00fcrecinin 2025’te de devam edece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n

\n\tG\u00f6revlerinin ve ama\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu hedefledikleri patikada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret eden Karahan, “\u0130\u00e7 talepte dengelenme s\u00fcrecini, kredilerdeki normalle\u015fmeyi, T\u00fcrk liras\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015fi ve bunlarla birlikte fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda iyile\u015fmeyi parasal aktar\u0131m mekanizmas\u0131 i\u00e7inde bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmam\u0131zla birlikte, bir \u00f6nceki Enflasyon Raporu’na k\u0131yasla enflasyonun ana e\u011filimi, kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, alt\u0131n ve t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerimizle uyumlu ve belirgin \u015fekilde gerilemi\u015ftir.” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

\n\tKarahan, T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 mevduata ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcrecinin de tasarland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izerek, mevcut s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131k d\u00fczeyinin ve mevcut ara\u00e7lar\u0131n s\u00f6z konusu geli\u015fmelerin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u015fekilde devam\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayabilecek g\u00fc\u00e7te oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\n\tKarahan, \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, politika faizinin mevcut seviyesini, enflasyonun ana e\u011filiminde belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sa\u011flanana ve enflasyon beklentileri tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na yak\u0131nsayana kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fiz. Mevduat faizi ve kredi arz\u0131 taraf\u0131nda, parasal aktar\u0131m\u0131 zay\u0131flatan oynakl\u0131klara izin vermeyece\u011fiz. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, likidite sterilizasyonuna \u00f6n al\u0131c\u0131 bir anlay\u0131\u015fla ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde devam edece\u011fiz. Enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u00fczerinde belirgin bir bozulma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi durumunda ise parasal s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilecektir.”<\/p>\n

\n\tKarahan, ekibiyle dezenflasyonu tesis etmeye y\u00f6nelik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalara kararl\u0131l\u0131kla devam edeceklerini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\n\tMerkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6revinin fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek oldu\u011funu vurgulayan Karahan, bu ama\u00e7la Haziran 2023’te parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma s\u00fcrecini ba\u015flatt\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi.<\/p>\n

\n\tKarahan, yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131rken politikalar\u0131n sonucu olarak bir \u00f6nceki rapor d\u00f6neminden bu yana hem reel hem finansal g\u00f6stergelerin, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fru yolda ilerledi\u011fini teyit etti\u011fini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n

\n\tParasal s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00f6nemine dikkati \u00e7eken Karahan, \u015f\u00f6yle konu\u015ftu:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Enflasyon, hedefimizle uyumlu seviyeye gerileyene kadar parasal s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 korumakta kararl\u0131y\u0131z. Enflasyon beklentilerini ve fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan takip ediyoruz. Enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde herhangi bir bozulmaya izin vermeyece\u011fiz. Uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z politikalar, etkisini g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flamakla beraber, kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat istikrar\u0131na ula\u015fana kadar politika duru\u015fumuzu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek enflasyonu tahmin etti\u011fimiz patikaya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek ve orta vadede ekonomimizi kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat istikrar\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131z.”<\/p>\n

\n\t“Faiz indirimlerinin zamanlamas\u0131 ve h\u0131z\u0131 \u00f6nem kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r”<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tK\u00fcresel \u00e7apta s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131 ve k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi bask\u0131lay\u0131c\u0131 etkisinin ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ortas\u0131ndan itibaren etkisinin belirginle\u015fti\u011fini vurgulayan Karahan, ihracatla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lan k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin, kademeli gerilemeyi takiben son \u00e7eyrekte \u00f6nceki rapor d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re yatay seyretti\u011fini anlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tKarahan, k\u00fcresel ekonomideki geli\u015fmelere ili\u015fkin de de\u011ferlendirmede bulundu.<\/p>\n

\n\tK\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve kompozisyonunun, jeopolitik riskler, finansal ko\u015fullar ve arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc fakt\u00f6rlerin emtia fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde belirleyici oldu\u011funa i\u015faret eden Karahan, \u00f6nceki rapor d\u00f6neminden bu yana enerji hari\u00e7 emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerilemesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi.<\/p>\n

\n\tKarahan, bu d\u00f6nemde do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere enerji ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dikkati \u00e7ekerek, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6nceki rapor d\u00f6neminden bu yana belirgin \u015fekilde gerilerken k\u0131sa vadede y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k sergilemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc dile getirdi.<\/p>\n

\n\tBu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda k\u00fcresel enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminin y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n katk\u0131s\u0131yla h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Karahan, \u015fu ifadeleri kulland\u0131:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Bir\u00e7ok ekonomide \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon da son aylarda gerilemektedir. Bununla birlikte enflasyon, k\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde hedeflerin \u00fczerinde seyretmektedir. Riskler devam etmekle birlikte enflasyonun y\u0131l i\u00e7inde gerilemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi beklenmektedir. Bu enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc alt\u0131nda geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131, politika faizlerinin mevcut seviyesini enflasyon hedefleri i\u00e7in yeterli g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini belirtmektedir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde faiz indirimlerinin zamanlamas\u0131 ve h\u0131z\u0131 \u00f6nem kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.”<\/p>\n

\n\tGeli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin bir k\u0131sm\u0131nda enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcndeki iyile\u015fmeyle faiz indirim s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinin devam etti\u011fini vurgulayan Karahan, \u00f6nceki rapor d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n, politika faizlerini daha erken indirece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik piyasa beklentilerinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\n\tKarahan, enflasyonist riskler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n indirim s\u00fcre\u00e7lerini kademeli \u015fekilde s\u00fcrd\u00fcreceklerinin ve k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte parasal s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n korunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fini ifade ederek ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n belirgin toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke piyasalar\u0131na portf\u00f6y giri\u015flerinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren ise geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n, faiz indirimlerine daha ihtiyatla yakla\u015fan s\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirmeleri sonucunda portf\u00f6y giri\u015flerinin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\t“Akaryak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n dolayl\u0131 etkileri s\u00fcr\u00fcyor”<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tKarahan, 2023’\u00fcn son \u00e7eyre\u011finde enflasyonun \u00f6nceki rapor tahminleriyle tutarl\u0131 seyretti\u011fini ve y\u0131l sonunda y\u00fczde 64,8 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini hat\u0131rlatarak, y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131na kadar artmas\u0131n\u0131 beklediklerini tekrarlad\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\t2023’\u00fcn son \u00e7eyre\u011finde parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n etkileriyle fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda ve enflasyonun ana e\u011filiminde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen iyile\u015fmeye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, enflasyon 3,3 puanla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden Karahan, art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131 olan 2,4 puan\u0131n do\u011fal gazda 25 metrek\u00fcp bedelsiz kullan\u0131m s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi.<\/p>\n

\n\tKarahan, bu d\u00f6nemde, enflasyon \u00fczerinde, bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekte akaryak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n dolayl\u0131 etkileri s\u00fcrerken parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmayla talep ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu 1 puan civar\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fini belirterek, \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Y\u00fcksek ve oynak seyreden enflasyon, emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 2022 sonras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7mesinin ard\u0131ndan 2023’te giderek daha fazla talep kaynakl\u0131 hale gelmi\u015ftir. Ancak s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ad\u0131mlar\u0131m\u0131zla talepte dengelenme s\u00fcreci ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacminin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, 2023’\u00fcn ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda belirgin \u015fekilde yava\u015flam\u0131\u015f, kas\u0131m itibar\u0131yla \u00e7eyreklik bazda negatife d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Politikalar\u0131m\u0131z, talepteki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n giderilmesinde ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmakla birlikte, perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n mevcut seviyesinin halen diren\u00e7li oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Yurt i\u00e7i talebin dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecini s\u00fcr\u00fckleyici y\u00f6nde hareket etmesini sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in parasal duru\u015fumuzu korumakta kararl\u0131y\u0131z.”<\/p>\n

\n\tKarahan, talepteki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n 2023’\u00fcn ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda artan ithalat yoluyla d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesine de olumsuz yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkati \u00e7ekerek, i\u00e7 talepteki dengelenmeyi takiben son d\u00f6nemde ithalat e\u011filiminin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi.<\/p>\n

\n\tGe\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki yar\u0131ya k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 8,5 artan alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131n\u0131n, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 18,6 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayan Karahan, t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f e\u011filiminin, ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde belirgin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, m\u00fccevher hari\u00e7 dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131n\u0131n geriledi\u011fini, otomobil ithalat\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n da h\u0131z kesti\u011fini anlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tOcak ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin ge\u00e7ici verilerin, hem toplam hem de alt\u0131n ve enerji hari\u00e7 bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesindeki iyile\u015fme e\u011filiminin devam\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini kaydeden Karahan, 2023’\u00fcn ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde alt\u0131n ve t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131laya oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 5,7 seviyesine ula\u015fmas\u0131na neden oldu\u011funu dile getirdi.<\/p>\n

\n\t“2024’te cari dengede iyile\u015fme s\u00fcrecinin devam\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz”<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\t2023 sonu itibar\u0131yla cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n, milli gelire oranla y\u00fczde 4 civar\u0131na geriledi\u011fini tahmin ettiklerini belirten Karahan, “Bu d\u00f6nemlerde, talebin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla ve beklentilerin iyile\u015fmesiyle birlikte, cari dengede d\u00fczelme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. Mevcut parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma s\u00fcreci de \u00f6ncekilere benzer \u015fekilde, ba\u015fta alt\u0131n ve dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 olmak \u00fczere, ithalat kanal\u0131yla cari dengeye katk\u0131da bulunmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2024’te parasal aktar\u0131m\u0131n gecikmeli etkilerinin devreye girmesiyle, yurt i\u00e7i talepte dengelenmeyle, cari dengede iyile\u015fme s\u00fcrecinin devam\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tFinansal ko\u015fullardaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ve i\u00e7 talepteki dengelenmenin mal ve hizmet gruplar\u0131nda fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131na olumlu y\u00f6nde yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011funu aktaran Karahan, finansal ko\u015fullardan g\u00f6rece daha h\u0131zl\u0131 etkilenen dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde, \u00f6zellikle otomobil, beyaz e\u015fya, mobilya ve ev aletlerinde fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi.<\/p>\n

\n\tKarahan, dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal enflasyonunun \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k ortalamalara g\u00f6re A\u011fustos 2023’teki y\u00fczde 9 seviyesinden Aral\u0131k 2023 itibar\u0131yla y\u00fczde 1,3’e geriledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00d6zellikle otomotiv ve beyaz e\u015fyada talebi yeniden canland\u0131rmak amac\u0131yla yap\u0131lan fiyat indirimlerinin etkili oldu\u011funu vurgulayan Karahan, hizmet enflasyonu e\u011filiminde de son \u00e7eyrekte yava\u015flama kaydedilirken kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ifade etti.<\/p>\n

\n\tKarahan, parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n, k\u0131sa vadede, mal enflasyonu \u00fczerinde daha etkili oldu\u011funa dikkati \u00e7ekerek, hizmet enflasyonunun, d\u00fczenlemeye tabi y\u00f6netilen kalemler ile e\u011fitim ve sa\u011fl\u0131k hizmetleri ve kira gibi ge\u00e7mi\u015f enflasyona endeksleme e\u011filimi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalemler sebebiyle \u00f6nemli atalet sergilendi\u011fini, bu kalemlerin, \u015foklar\u0131n enflasyon \u00fczerindeki etkilerinin uzun s\u00fcreye yay\u0131lmas\u0131na neden oldu\u011funu anlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00dccret ve fiyat g\u00fcncellemeleri ile s\u00f6zle\u015fme yenilemelerinde \u00f6nemli bir ay olan ocakta, hizmet fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek oranl\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n g\u00f6zlendi\u011fine i\u015faret eden Karahan, hizmet enflasyonundaki kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00f6nemli bile\u015feninin kiralar oldu\u011funu, bu ba\u011flamda konut piyasas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nem arz etti\u011fini, buradaki geli\u015fmelerin \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge olarak yak\u0131ndan takip edildi\u011fini s\u00f6zlerine ekledi.<\/p>\n

\n
ET\u0130KETLER<\/div>\n
\n Enflasyon
\n Merkez Bankas\u0131\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Karahan, Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u0130dare Merkezi’nde d\u00fczenledi\u011fi bilgilendirme toplant\u0131s\u0131nda,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2460,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[205,4,146,3,385],"class_list":["post-6408","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi-haberleri","tag-acikladi","tag-bankasi","tag-enflasyon","tag-merkez","tag-tahminini"],"yoast_head":"\nMerkez Bankas\u0131 enflasyon tahminini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131 - Es-Exchange Ekonomi Haberleri<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=6408\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Merkez Bankas\u0131 enflasyon tahminini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131 - 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