{"id":7952,"date":"2024-05-02T17:37:50","date_gmt":"2024-05-02T14:37:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=7952"},"modified":"2024-05-02T17:37:50","modified_gmt":"2024-05-02T14:37:50","slug":"oecd-basekonomisti-turkiye-ve-dunyadaki-ekonomik-gorunumu-degerlendirdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=7952","title":{"rendered":"OECD Ba\u015fekonomisti, T\u00fcrkiye ve d\u00fcnyadaki ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de\u011ferlendirdi"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\n\tLombardelli, OECD’nin bug\u00fcn yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu ile T\u00fcrkiye ve d\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki geli\u015fmelere ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda bulundu.<\/p>\n

\n\tT\u00fcrkiye’de yakla\u015f\u0131k son bir y\u0131ld\u0131r para ve maliye politikas\u0131nda yap\u0131lan de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin memnuniyet verici oldu\u011funu dile getiren Lombardelli, “S\u0131k\u0131 para ve maliye politikas\u0131, enflasyon gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sorun kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ekonominin en ihtiyac\u0131 olan ad\u0131m. T\u00fcrkiye’de enflasyon hala y\u00fcksek ancak d\u00fc\u015fmesini bekliyoruz. \u015eu an T\u00fcrkiye’de politika faizi y\u00fczde 50 ve bu seviyenin y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda ve muhtemelen 2025’in ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar korunmas\u0131 gerekece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ondan sonra gev\u015feme g\u00f6rebiliriz ancak bu b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde enflasyonun seyrine ba\u011fl\u0131. Enflasyon beklentilerinin iyi bir \u015fekilde \u00e7\u0131paland\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan emin olmak i\u00e7in bu s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na ihtiya\u00e7 var.” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

\n\tLombardelli, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2023’te y\u00fczde 4,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bilgisini payla\u015farak, bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3,4 ve 2025’te y\u00fczde 3,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklediklerini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\n
\"TCMB<\/div>\n
TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Karahan: S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 duru\u015fumuzu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fiz<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n\tBu kapsamda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 ad\u0131mlar nedeniyle ekonomide bir miktar yava\u015flama g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fini ifade eden Lombardelli, \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmelerde bulundu:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Deprem b\u00f6lgesindeki yeniden yap\u0131lanma ihtiyac\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yat\u0131r\u0131m var. Bunun da talebi art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. Ayr\u0131ca, k\u00fcresel ekonomi canland\u0131k\u00e7a, T\u00fcrkiye’nin ihracat\u0131n\u0131n da artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin iyimser olmak i\u00e7in nedenlerimiz var ancak enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 politika duru\u015funun devam etmesi gerekecek. Biz politikada gev\u015feme beklemiyoruz. Politika faizinde mevcut y\u00fczde 50 seviyesinin makul oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz i\u00e7in, politikan\u0131n en az\u0131ndan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131la kadar s\u0131k\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.”<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\n
\"Bakan<\/div>\n
Bakan Bolat: Bakanl\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7emizin y\u00fczde 60’\u0131n\u0131 ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar i\u00e7in harc\u0131yoruz<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n\tLombardelli, para ve maliye politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiye yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131n zaman ald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkati \u00e7ekerek, T\u00fcrkiye’de de enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesinin zaman alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n

\n\tEnflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi halinde para politikas\u0131nda bir miktar gev\u015feme g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fini kaydeden Lombardelli, “Ancak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir gelecekte, bu s\u0131k\u0131 parasal duru\u015fun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ve ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma gerekip gerekmedi\u011finin takip edilmesi \u00f6nemli.” dedi.<\/p>\n

\n\t“Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmede Avrupa ve ABD aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck fark var”<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tD\u00fcnyada merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n politika faizindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak enflasyonun beklenenden h\u0131zl\u0131 geriledi\u011fini aktaran Lombardelli, buna ra\u011fmen jeopolitik risklerin enflasyona ili\u015fkin riskler olu\u015fturabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\n\tLombardelli, buna ra\u011fmen k\u00fcresel ekonomide bu y\u0131la ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini y\u00fczde 3,1’e y\u00fckselttikleri bilgisini verdi.<\/p>\n

\n\tBaz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde t\u00fcketici talebinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu ve i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n da beklenenden daha iyi performans sergiledi\u011fini dile getiren Lombardelli, “\u00d6zellikle ABD ve Hindistan ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerimizi y\u00fckselttik.” dedi.<\/p>\n

\n\tLombardelli, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ABD ekonomisinde bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2,6 ve 2025’te y\u00fczde 1,8 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini, 2023’te y\u00fczde 7,8 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen Hindistan ekonomisinde ise bu oran\u0131n bu y\u0131l ve 2025’te y\u00fczde 6,6 olmas\u0131n\u0131 beklediklerini anlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tEuro B\u00f6lgesi’nin ise 2023’te olduk\u00e7a zorlu bir y\u0131l ge\u00e7irdi\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izen Lombardelli, “Euro B\u00f6lgesi’nde Almanya dahil bir\u00e7ok ekonomi resesyona girdi. \u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, riskler tabii ki mevcut ancak herhangi bir Avrupa ekonomisinde resesyon \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz. Bu y\u0131l Euro B\u00f6lgesi’nde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 0,7 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesapl\u0131yoruz. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve 2024 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fczde, Avrupa \u00fclkeleri ve ABD ekonomisi aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fark var. Bu fark\u0131n 2025’te biraz daha darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in 2025’te y\u00fczde 1,5 ve ABD ekonomisi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 1,8 b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekliyoruz.” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

\n\t“Avrupa’da faiz indirimi ABD’den erken gelecek”<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tMerkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirimine ili\u015fkin beklentilerini de aktaran Lombardelli, baz\u0131 geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerde faiz indiriminin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ancak geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerde merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan sonra faiz indirimine ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini belirtti.<\/p>\n

\n\tLombardelli, \u00fclkelerin kendi ko\u015fullar\u0131na g\u00f6re faiz indirimi zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fini ifade ederek, \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Avrupa’da faiz indiriminin ABD’den daha erken ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz ki bu da s\u00f6z konusu ekonomilerin g\u00f6receli g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Avrupa’da faiz indiriminin y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz ancak gelecek verilere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak bu biraz daha erkene \u00e7ekilebilir. Y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ve son \u00e7eyre\u011finde olmak \u00fczere iki kez faiz indirimi olabilir ancak Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131ndan daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ad\u0131m da g\u00f6rebiliriz. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n (Fed) ise faiz indirimine y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde veya sonras\u0131nda gitmesini bekliyoruz. Fed’den bu y\u0131l iki kez faiz indirimi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 da \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesini bekledi\u011fimiz bankalardan. Ancak t\u00fcm bu geli\u015fmeler gelecek enflasyon verilerine ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tE\u011fer enflasyon \u00e7o\u011fu \u00fclkede beklendi\u011fi gibi d\u00fc\u015fmezse, o zaman bu faiz indirimlerinin biraz ertelenmesi gerekebilir. \u00d6zellikle baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olan hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc enflasyonu bu noktada \u00f6nemli. Faiz indirimleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ABD’nin pozisyonu, dolar kuru \u00fczerindeki etkisi nedeniyle bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli olacakt\u0131r. Bu kapsamda, ekonomiler aras\u0131nda para politikas\u0131nda gev\u015feme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde daha fazla ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6rebiliriz.”<\/p>\n

\n\tD\u00fcnya ekonomisi 2023’te y\u00fczde 3,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tOECD Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu’na g\u00f6re, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ge\u00e7en y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. B\u00fcy\u00fcme G20 ve OECD \u00fclkelerinde s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 3,4 ve 1,7 oldu.<\/p>\n

\n\tK\u00fcresel ekonominin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, 2025’te bu oran\u0131n y\u00fczde 3,2’ye ula\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bu y\u0131l G20 \u00fclkelerinde y\u00fczde 3,1 ve OECD’de y\u00fczde 1,7 olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n

\n\tGe\u00e7en y\u0131l y\u00fczde 5,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen \u00c7in ekonomisinin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 4,9 ve 2025’te y\u00fczde 4,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

\n\tABD ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2023’te y\u00fczde 2,5 olurken, bu oran\u0131n bu y\u0131l ve 2025’te s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 2,6 ve y\u00fczde 1,8 seviyesinde olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

\n\tEuro B\u00f6lgesi’nde ise 2023’teki y\u00fczde 0,5’lik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 0,7’ye ve 2025’te y\u00fczde 1,5’e y\u00fckselece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n

\n\tGe\u00e7en y\u0131l y\u00fczde 4,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde bu oran\u0131n bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3,4 ve gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3,2 olaca\u011f\u0131 hesaplan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\n\tOECD’ye g\u00f6re, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bu y\u0131l Almanya’da y\u00fczde 0,2, \u0130ngiltere’de y\u00fczde 0,4, Rusya’da y\u00fczde 2,6 ve Brezilya’da y\u00fczde 1,9 olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lombardelli, OECD’nin bug\u00fcn yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu ile T\u00fcrkiye ve d\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki geli\u015fmelere ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":932,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[7238,2967,7239,41,6907,1446,538],"class_list":["post-7952","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi-haberleri","tag-basekonomisti","tag-degerlendirdi","tag-dunyadaki","tag-ekonomik","tag-gorunumu","tag-oecd","tag-turkiye"],"yoast_head":"\nOECD Ba\u015fekonomisti, T\u00fcrkiye ve d\u00fcnyadaki ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de\u011ferlendirdi - Es-Exchange Ekonomi Haberleri<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=7952\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"OECD Ba\u015fekonomisti, T\u00fcrkiye ve d\u00fcnyadaki ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de\u011ferlendirdi - 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