{"id":8260,"date":"2024-05-16T13:44:11","date_gmt":"2024-05-16T10:44:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=8260"},"modified":"2024-05-16T13:44:11","modified_gmt":"2024-05-16T10:44:11","slug":"abdde-faiz-indirimi-beklentileri-artti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=8260","title":{"rendered":"ABD’de “faiz indirimi” beklentileri artt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\n\tABD Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimlerinin zamanlamas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik s\u00fcrerken, ABD’de bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan enflasyon verileri piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00dclkede sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere g\u00f6re, \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE), nisanda ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 0,5 ile beklentilerin \u00fczerinde artt\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00dcretici fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazdaki art\u0131\u015f ise nisanda y\u00fczde 2,2 ile Nisan 2023’ten sonraki en y\u00fcksek seviyesini kaydetti.<\/p>\n

\n\tAnalistler, nisana ili\u015fkin man\u015fet verilerin y\u00fcksek geldi\u011fini ancak mart verilerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n

\n\tFed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell da nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00dcFE verilerini “kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k” olarak nitelendirdi. Enflasyonu hedefe d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmenin “sorunsuz bir yol” olmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemediklerini dile getiren Powell, son d\u00f6nemde y\u00fcksek gelen verilerin sab\u0131rl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 ve k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fini yapmas\u0131na izin verilmesi gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n

\n\tPowell, k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesinin beklenenden daha uzun s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine dikkati \u00e7ekerek, “Elimizdeki verilere dayanarak yapaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir sonraki hamlenin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorum. Politika faizini mevcut seviyesinde tutabilece\u011fimiz bir yerde olaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n daha muhtemel oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

\n\tEyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz indirimi beklentileri artt\u0131<\/h2>\n

\n\t\u00dclkede d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan enflasyon raporuna g\u00f6re, T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) nisanda ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 0,3 ile \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerin alt\u0131nda artarken, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 3,4 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

\n\tDe\u011fi\u015fken enerji ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7ermeyen \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE de nisanda ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,3 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 3,6 ile beklentilere paralel art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00d6te yandan, y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun y\u00fczde 3,6 ile Nisan 2021’den sonraki en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye gerilemesi dikkati \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n

\n\tAnalistler, T\u00dcFE verilerinin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Fed’in faiz indirimlerine eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda ba\u015flayabilece\u011fine dair tahminlerin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n

\n\tT\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n nisanda beklenenden az artmas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonun ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin ba\u015f\u0131nda yava\u015flama e\u011filimine devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini belirten analistler, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 i\u00e7in faiz indirimi beklentilerinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi.<\/p>\n

\n\tPara piyasalar\u0131nda da Fed’in eyl\u00fclde faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flama ihtimali y\u00fczde 73 seviyesinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

\n\t“Fed, birka\u00e7 ay daha pozitif enflasyon verileri g\u00f6rmek isteyecek”<\/h2>\n

\n\tOxford Economics ABD Ba\u015fekonomisti Ryan Sweet, T\u00dcFE’nin nisanda tahmin edilenden daha az y\u00fckseldi\u011fini ancak Fed’in enflasyonun hedefe s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dair g\u00fcven kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sinyalini vermeden \u00f6nce birka\u00e7 ay daha pozitif enflasyon verileri g\u00f6rmek isteyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\n\tSweet, “T\u00dcFE, ilk faiz indiriminin eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fine dair \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirmiyor.” dedi.<\/p>\n

\n\tPiyasalar\u0131n bu y\u0131l 25 baz puanl\u0131k 2 faiz indirimini fiyatlad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ve enflasyon verilerine kar\u015f\u0131 hassas olmaya devam ettiklerini belirten Sweet, “Fed sab\u0131rl\u0131 olmaya devam edecek \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00e7ekirdek ve hizmetler harici \u00e7ekirdek olmak \u00fczere T\u00dcFE’deki oynakl\u0131k salg\u0131ndan bu yana y\u00fcksek.” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

\n\tSweet, Fed’in gelecek ayki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 politika faizine ili\u015fkin \u00fcyelerin beklentilerinin yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 “dot plot” grafi\u011finin muhtemelen 25 baz puanl\u0131k 3 faiz indirimi yerine 2 faiz indirimine i\u015faret edece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\n\t“Reel ekonomideki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n Fed’e faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flama nedeni vermesi daha olas\u0131”<\/h2>\n

\n\tRabobank K\u0131demli ABD Stratejisti Philip Marey, ABD’de T\u00dcFE verileri beklentilerle uyumlu ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla cesaret verici olsa da hem konut enflasyonu hem de konut harici \u00e7ekirdek hizmet enflasyonunun y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkati \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n

\n\tBu durumun \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun yap\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini belirten Marey, “T\u00dcFE verilerinin Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesinde (FOMC) enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in sabr\u0131n yeterli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in cesaret verici oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.” ifadesini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tMarey, ancak son aylarda zay\u0131f perakende sat\u0131\u015flarda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi reel ekonomideki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n, FOMC’a faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flama nedeni vermesinin daha muhtemel oldu\u011funu dile getirerek, “dot plot” grafi\u011finde Fed’in bu seneki faiz indirimi say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 3’ten 2’ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesini bekledi\u011fini kaydetti.<\/p>\n

\n\t“\u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi k\u00f6t\u00fc s\u00fcrprizi k\u0131rd\u0131”<\/h2>\n

\n\tAmerican Enterprise Institute (AEI) k\u0131demli uzman\u0131 Steven Kamin de T\u00dcFE verilerinin hafif olumlu oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederek, ayl\u0131k bazda hem man\u015fet hem \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0,4’ten y\u00fczde 0,3’e gerilemesinin bir dizi k\u00f6t\u00fc s\u00fcrprizi k\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\n\tEnflasyonun b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n hala bar\u0131nma maliyetlerinden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Kamin, bar\u0131nma maliyetleri istikrar kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131nda enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fmeye devam edebilece\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tKamin, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 3,6 olan \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun hala Fed’in y\u00fczde 2’lik hedefinin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederek, “Haziran ay\u0131nda faiz indirimi ihtimali \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, ancak son T\u00dcFE verileri bu y\u0131l i\u00e7inde bir ya da 2 faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor.” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

\n\tFed’in haziranda a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 ekonomik tahminlerinde mart ay\u0131na g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekledi\u011fini dile getiren Kamin, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen faiz indirimi say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ise bir eksik olabilece\u011fini kaydetti.<\/p>\n

\n\t“Enflasyon, gelecek aylarda Fed’in hedefine d\u00f6nme yolunda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor”<\/h2>\n

\n\tMoody’s Analytics Ba\u015fekonomisti Mark Zandi de T\u00dcFE rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n iyi hissettirdi\u011fini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n

\n\tZandi, “Y\u0131la zorlu bir ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131n ard\u0131ndan enflasyon, gelecek aylarda Fed’in hedefine d\u00f6nme yolunda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.” dedi.<\/p>\n

\n\tVerilerin en umut verici yan\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131lla k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse yatay seyretmesi ve ev i\u00e7i t\u00fcketimdeki g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesi oldu\u011funu belirten Zandi, bunun \u00f6zellikle en \u00e7ok bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda olan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli hanelerin finansal refah\u0131 ile genel olarak Amerikal\u0131lar\u0131n enflasyon ve finansal duruma ili\u015fkin alg\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\n\tZandi, T\u00dcFE verilerindeki temel hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ise konut maliyetlerinde inatla y\u00fcksek seyreden art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu ifade etti.<\/p>\n

\n\tMark Zandi, “T\u00dcFE rakamlar\u0131 Fed’i faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye ikna edecek kadar iyi de\u011fil ancak rakamlar iyile\u015fmeye devam ederse ki ben \u00f6yle bekliyorum, Fed’in bu sonbahardan itibaren faiz indirimine yetecek g\u00fcc\u00fc olacak.” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

\n
ET\u0130KETLER<\/div>\n
\n FED
\n Faiz
\n Enflasyon
\n ABD Ekonomisi\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimlerinin zamanlamas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik s\u00fcrerken, ABD’de bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan enflasyon…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[398,94,1449,287,437],"class_list":["post-8260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi-haberleri","tag-abdde","tag-artti","tag-beklentileri","tag-faiz","tag-indirimi"],"yoast_head":"\nABD'de "faiz indirimi" beklentileri artt\u0131 - Es-Exchange Ekonomi Haberleri<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=8260\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ABD'de "faiz indirimi" beklentileri artt\u0131 - 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