{"id":8400,"date":"2024-05-22T11:40:48","date_gmt":"2024-05-22T08:40:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=8400"},"modified":"2024-05-22T11:40:48","modified_gmt":"2024-05-22T08:40:48","slug":"yurt-icinde-gozler-tcmbnin-faiz-kararina-cevrildi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=8400","title":{"rendered":"Yurt i\u00e7inde g\u00f6zler TCMB’nin faiz karar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\n\tT\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu, Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Karahan ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yar\u0131n toplanacak.<\/p>\n

\n\tAyn\u0131 g\u00fcn saat 14.00’te faiz karar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Ge\u00e7en ay ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizi y\u00fczde 50 seviyesinde sabit tutulmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

\n\tPolitika faizinin sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyor<\/h2>\n

\n\tEkonomistlerin politika faizindeki de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe ili\u015fkin beklentilerinin medyan de\u011feri, faizin y\u00fczde 50’de sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu. Ekonomistlerin y\u0131l sonu politika faizi beklentilerinin medyan\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 45 olarak hesapland\u0131. Y\u0131l sonuna ili\u015fkin beklentilerini payla\u015fan ekonomistlerden 2’si y\u0131l sonunda politika faizinin y\u00fczde 50, 1’i y\u00fczde 47,5, 5’i y\u00fczde 45 ve 2’si y\u00fczde 40 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

\n\tPiyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Anketi<\/h2>\n

\n\tTCMB’nin piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 anketine g\u00f6re ise cari ay ve 3 ay sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in beklenti y\u00fczde 50 oldu. 12 ay sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in politika faizi beklentisi de y\u00fczde 38,18’den y\u00fczde 37,11’e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n

\n\tPPK toplant\u0131 \u00f6zeti<\/h2>\n

\n\tTCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulunun 25 Nisan’daki toplant\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6zet yay\u0131mland\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00d6zette, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir iyile\u015fme g\u00f6sterirken, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasalar\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n devam etti\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n

\n\tT\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f ticaret ortaklar\u0131n\u0131n ihracat paylar\u0131yla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lan k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme endeksinin 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2,1 ile 2023 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 1,8\u2019in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oranda \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011finin tahmin edildi\u011fi ve k\u00fcresel iktisadi faaliyetin zay\u0131f seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fi vurgulanan \u00f6zette, \u015funlar kaydedildi:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Bununla birlikte, gerek ihracat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc gerekse birinci \u00e7eyrek Sat\u0131nalma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi (PMI) verileri, iktisadi faaliyette 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 son \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir toparlanmaya i\u015faret etmektedir. Ayr\u0131ca ABD ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fcme e\u011filimi di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerden olumlu ayr\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler ve enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sa\u011flamak amac\u0131yla s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel iktisadi faaliyetin seyri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan risk fakt\u00f6rleri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun ve enflasyon beklentilerinin y\u00fcksek seviyeleri, k\u00fcresel enflasyonun bir s\u00fcre daha merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n hedeflerinin \u00fczerinde seyretmeye devam edece\u011fini ima etmektedir. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda enflasyonda g\u00f6r\u00fclen keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ra\u011fmen bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede, \u00f6zellikle hizmet enflasyonundaki kat\u0131l\u0131k dikkat \u00e7ekmektedir. Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde faiz indirimleri parasal s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 koruyacak \u015fekilde s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcrken, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n da 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flamalar\u0131 beklenmektedir. Ancak, enflasyonda g\u00f6zlenen kat\u0131l\u0131k, jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin risklerin artmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak piyasa fiyatlamalar\u0131 \u00f6nceki PPK d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla daha temkinli bir indirim patikas\u0131na i\u015faret etmektedir.”<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00d6zette, di\u011fer taraftan geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerin b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmleri ve para politikalar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin farkl\u0131la\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131, artan k\u00fcresel belirsizlik ile birlikte risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere y\u00f6nelen portf\u00f6y ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde dalgal\u0131 bir seyir izledi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tMart ay\u0131nda at\u0131lan ad\u0131mlar\u0131n etkisiyle finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilen \u00f6zette, \u015fu ifadeler yer ald\u0131:<\/p>\n

\n\t“S\u00f6z konusu ad\u0131mlar, politika faizinin mevduat ve kredi faizlerine aktar\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015ftir. T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 mevduat faizleri, \u00f6nceki PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131 haftas\u0131ndan bu yana 1071 baz puan artarak, 19 Nisan itibar\u0131yla y\u00fczde 60,34 seviyesine y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 ticari kredi faizleri ve ihtiya\u00e7 kredisi (Kredili Mevduat Hesab\u0131-KMH hari\u00e7) faizlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f de politika faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00f6tesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f, bu faizler s\u0131ras\u0131yla 871 ve 554 baz puan artarak y\u00fczde 68,29 ve y\u00fczde 81,54 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir Konut kredisi faizleri, 229 baz puan art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek y\u00fczde 44,94 seviyesine y\u00fckselirken ta\u015f\u0131t kredisi faizleri son d\u00f6nem kampanyalar\u0131n etkisi ile 1933 baz puan azalarak 19 Nisan 2024 itibar\u0131yla y\u00fczde 23,76 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. Di\u011fer taraftan 6 Nisan 2024 tarihinde kredi kart\u0131 i\u015flemlerinde uygulanan azami akdi faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 3,66\u2019dan y\u00fczde 4,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltilmesiyle, kredi kart\u0131 harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n da kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde dengelenme s\u00fcrecine katk\u0131 vermeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.”<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00d6zette, bununla birlikte, etkileri yak\u0131ndan takip edilen ve yurt i\u00e7i talepte dengelenme s\u00fcreci a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yan bir unsur olarak, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutarl\u0131 tasarruf mevduatlar\u0131 ile y\u00fcksek tutarl\u0131 mevduatlara \u00f6nerilen faizler aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n artarak devam etti\u011finin g\u00f6zlendi\u011fi bildirildi.<\/p>\n

\n\tParasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n krediler ve i\u00e7 talep \u00fczerindeki etkilerinin yak\u0131ndan izlendi\u011fi kaydedilen \u00f6zette, “Uygulanan parasal ve miktarsal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n etkisi ile bir \u00f6nceki PPK d\u00f6neminden bu yana belirgin \u015fekilde yava\u015flayan toplam kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin yurt i\u00e7i talepteki diren\u00e7li seyri zay\u0131flatmas\u0131 beklenmektedir. Bireysel kredilerin 4 haftal\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131n ortalamas\u0131 \u00f6nceki PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131 haftas\u0131ndan bu yana azalarak, y\u00fczde 4,12 seviyesinden y\u00fczde 3,28 seviyesine gerilemi\u015ftir. S\u00f6z konusu oran, ihtiya\u00e7 kredilerinde y\u00fczde 4,59\u2019dan y\u00fczde 2,49\u2019a; bireysel kredi kartlar\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 5,34\u2019ten y\u00fczde 5,01\u2019e gerilemi\u015ftir.” ifadesi kullan\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00d6zette, \u015fu bilgilere yer verildi:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Ta\u015f\u0131t kredilerindeki ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 negatif b\u00f6lgede kalmaya devam etmi\u015f ve \u00f6nceki PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131 haftas\u0131ndan bu yana ta\u015f\u0131t kredileri haftal\u0131k ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde -1,29 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 ticari kredilerde de yava\u015flama devam etmi\u015f, 4 haftal\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131n ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 3,34 seviyesinden y\u00fczde 1,64 seviyesine gerilerken, kur etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f YP ticari kredilerde bu oran y\u00fczde 1,28 seviyesinden y\u00fczde 2,89 seviyesine y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir.”<\/p>\n

\n\t“TCMB, makro finansal istikrar\u0131 koruyacak \u015fekilde makro ihtiyati politikalar\u0131 sadele\u015ftirmeye devam etmektedir”<\/h2>\n

\n\t\u00d6zette, TCMB’nin makro finansal istikrar\u0131 koruyacak \u015fekilde makro ihtiyati politikalar\u0131 sadele\u015ftirmeye devam etti\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n

\n\tBu kapsamda, 6 Nisan 2024’te yap\u0131lan duyuruda, menkul k\u0131ymet tesisine tabi d\u00f6viz y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri i\u00e7in uygulanan tesis oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 4\u2019ten y\u00fczde 1\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine g\u00f6re menkul k\u0131ymet tesisinin sonland\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 an\u0131msat\u0131lan \u00f6zette, bunun yan\u0131nda, y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fck i\u00e7in menkul k\u0131ymet tesisi uygulamas\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n zamanda sonland\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 bilgisinin payla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaydedildi.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00d6zette, \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmelere yer verildi:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Di\u011fer taraftan, 25 Nisan 2024 tarihli duyuru ile T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 mevduat pay\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve kur korumal\u0131 mevduattan T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 mevduata ge\u00e7i\u015fin desteklenerek parasal aktar\u0131m mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi amac\u0131yla, TL\u2019ye ge\u00e7i\u015f ve ayr\u0131ca yenileme ile TL\u2019ye ge\u00e7i\u015f hedeflerini sa\u011flayan bankalar\u0131n zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar \u00fczerinden alacaklar\u0131 faizler politika faiz oranlar\u0131 ile ili\u015fkilendirilerek kurala ba\u011flanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Buna g\u00f6re, TL mevduat i\u00e7in tesis edilmesi gereken zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k tutar\u0131na TL\u2019ye ge\u00e7i\u015f oran\u0131 seviyesine g\u00f6re uygulanan faiz \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n, politika faizinin y\u00fczde 80\u2019i olarak belirlenmesine karar verilmi\u015f ve b\u00f6ylece s\u00f6z konusu s\u0131n\u0131r y\u00fczde 36 seviyesinden y\u00fczde 40\u2019a y\u00fckseltilmi\u015ftir. KKM i\u00e7in tesis edilmesi gereken zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k tutar\u0131na yenileme ve TL\u2019ye ge\u00e7i\u015f oran\u0131 seviyesine g\u00f6re uygulanan faiz oran\u0131 \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 ise politika faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 60\u2019\u0131 olarak belirlenerek y\u00fczde 25 d\u00fczeyinden y\u00fczde 30\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu sayede TL mevduatlar\u0131n finansal kesime olan maliyeti azalt\u0131larak, mevduat faizinin daha y\u00fcksek bir seviyede olu\u015fmas\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ekonomik birimlerin hem TL tasarruflar\u0131n\u0131n hem de TL varl\u0131klara olan talebinin artmas\u0131 ama\u00e7lanmaktad\u0131r. Zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klara uygulanacak s\u00f6z konusu faizlerin kurala ba\u011flanmas\u0131yla birlikte politika faizine ba\u011fl\u0131 uyarlamalar\u0131n kendili\u011finden olmas\u0131 hedeflenmi\u015ftir.”<\/p>\n

\n\tTCMB br\u00fct uluslararas\u0131 rezervlerinin \u00f6nceki PPK toplant\u0131 haftas\u0131ndan bu yana 2,44 milyar dolar artarak 19 Nisan 2024 itibar\u0131yla 126,3 milyar dolar\u0131 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bildirilen \u00f6zette, \u015fu ifadelere yer verildi:<\/p>\n

\n\t“K\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki zay\u0131flamaya kar\u015f\u0131n, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k kredi risk primi (CDS) mart ay\u0131 PPK karar\u0131 sonras\u0131 benzer geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke CDS primlerinden belirgin derecede olumlu ayr\u0131\u015farak 24 Nisan 2024 itibar\u0131yla 310 baz puan seviyesine gerilemi\u015ftir. T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131n 1 ay vadeli kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 24 Nisan itibar\u0131yla s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 9,6 seviyesine gerilerken 12 ay vadeli kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yatay bir seyir izleyerek y\u00fczde 20,1 seviyesinde ger\u00e7eklemi\u015ftir. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 haziran ay\u0131ndan itibaren 2,27 milyar ABD dolar\u0131 Devlet \u0130\u00e7 Bor\u00e7lanma Senetleri (D\u0130BS) piyasas\u0131na ve 3,62 milyar ABD dolar\u0131 hisse senedi piyasas\u0131na olmak \u00fczere toplam 5,89 milyar ABD dolar\u0131 net portf\u00f6y giri\u015fi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir.”<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\"Yurt<\/p>\n

\n\tT\u00fcketim mal\u0131 ve alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131ndaki seyir cari dengedeki iyile\u015fmeye katk\u0131 verdi<\/h2>\n

\n\t\u00d6zette, t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 ve alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131ndaki seyrin cari dengedeki iyile\u015fmeye katk\u0131 verirken, yak\u0131n d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin di\u011fer g\u00f6stergelerin yurt i\u00e7i talepte direncin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret etti\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u015eubat ay\u0131nda, perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacim endeksinin ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, \u00e7eyreklik bazda da endeksin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131lan \u00f6zette, ticaret sat\u0131\u015f hacim endeksinin ise ayl\u0131k bazda artarken \u00e7eyreklik b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olarak yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00d6zette, \u015fubat ay\u0131na ait sekt\u00f6rel ciro ve hizmet \u00fcretim endekslerinin hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc faaliyetinde \u00e7eyreklik bazda \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti\u011fi vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tBir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekte gerileyen imalat sanayi firmalar\u0131n\u0131n kay\u0131tl\u0131 i\u00e7 piyasa sipari\u015flerinin \u00fccret g\u00fcncellemelerinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde yeniden art\u0131\u015f kaydetti\u011fi aktar\u0131lan \u00f6zette, \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmelere yer verildi:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Kartla yap\u0131lan harcamalar ise art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ilk \u00e7eyrekte s\u00fcrd\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, talebin mevcut seviyesi enflasyon \u00fczerinde bir risk unsuru olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmeye devam etmektedir. Nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 bayram tatili kesintisiyle net bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rsa da bu aya ili\u015fkin y\u00fcksek frekansl\u0131 veriler ve saha g\u00f6zlemleri yurt i\u00e7i talepte dengelenmeye y\u00f6nelik birtak\u0131m sinyaller i\u00e7ermektedir. Bu kapsamda, kartla yap\u0131lan harcamalar nisan ay\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda reelle\u015ftirilmi\u015f olarak ayl\u0131k bazda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etmektedir. Benzer \u015fekilde, nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin firma g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri, t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n, bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekte \u00f6ne \u00e7ekilmi\u015f olan talep ve uzun bayram tatilinin de etkisiyle ivme kaybetmekte oldu\u011funu ima etmektedir. Bununla birlikte, takvim etkilerinin ilgili g\u00f6stergelerde olu\u015fturdu\u011fu belirsizlik g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurulmakta ve talep g\u00f6stergeleri y\u00fcksek frekansta izlenmektedir.”<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00d6zette, \u015funlar kaydedildi:<\/p>\n

\n\t“\u015eubat ay\u0131nda sanayi \u00fcretim endeksi, mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olarak ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 3,2, takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olarak y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 11,5 oranlar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f kaydetmi\u015ftir. Sanayi \u00fcretiminde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazdaki y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l\u0131n \u015fubat ay\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen depremin neden oldu\u011fu baz etkilerinden de kaynaklanmaktad\u0131r. Ayl\u0131k bazdaki y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f, tipik olarak y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k sergileyen di\u011fer ula\u015f\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131 imalat\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan s\u00fcr\u00fcklenen sermaye mallar\u0131 \u00fcretiminde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen y\u00fczde 11,3 oran\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015ften kaynaklanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00c7eyreklik bazda sanayi \u00fcretimi \u015fubat ay\u0131 itibar\u0131yla y\u00fczde 3,4 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130malat sanayi kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 ise nisan ay\u0131nda mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olarak y\u00fczde 77 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek \u00e7eyreklik bazda yatay bir seyir ima etmi\u015ftir. \u015eubat ay\u0131 itibar\u0131yla mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f istihdam, \u00e7eyreklik bazda y\u00fczde 1,4 artarak 32,4 milyon ki\u015fi seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. Bu d\u00f6nemde, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 \u00e7eyreklik bazda artm\u0131\u015f, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ise de\u011fi\u015fmeyerek y\u00fczde 8,8 d\u00fczeyinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. Anket g\u00f6stergeleri ise imalat sanayi firmalar\u0131n\u0131n gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik istihdam beklentilerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etmektedir.”<\/p>\n

\n\t“Ge\u00e7ici d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri, ilk \u00e7eyrekte mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olarak t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131nda yatay bir seyre i\u015faret etti”<\/h2>\n

\n\t\u015eubat ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ayl\u0131k bazda 5,8 milyar dolara d\u00fc\u015ferek 31,8 milyar dolara geriledi\u011fi an\u0131msat\u0131lan \u00f6zette, s\u00f6z konusu gerilemede, ihracattaki art\u0131\u015f, alt\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki azal\u0131\u015f ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda devam eden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn etkili oldu\u011fu vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00d6zette, alt\u0131n ve enerji hari\u00e7 d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki azal\u0131\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tBu d\u00f6nemde, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f hizmetler dengesi fazlas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve y\u0131l geneline yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olarak seyreden turizm gelirlerinin de deste\u011fiyle, ayl\u0131k bazda 0,2 milyar dolar art\u0131\u015fla 52,2 milyar dolar oldu\u011fu belirtilen \u00f6zette, \u015fu ifadelere yer verildi:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Ge\u00e7ici d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri, ilk \u00e7eyrekte mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olarak t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131nda yatay bir seyre i\u015faret etmi\u015ftir. Alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131 mart ay\u0131nda tarihsel ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olarak 23 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda yatay seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Mart ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin ge\u00e7ici d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri, nisan ay\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek frekansl\u0131 verilerle beraber de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k ortalama e\u011filim, ihracatta yatay bir seyir ile ithalatta art\u0131\u015f ima etmektedir. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman taraf\u0131nda ise 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndan bu yana y\u00fczde 100\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde seyreden bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f uzun vadeli bor\u00e7 \u00e7evirme oran\u0131, bu y\u0131l\u0131n \u015fubat ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 118 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. S\u00f6z konusu oran, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki firmalarda y\u00fczde 93 civar\u0131nda olmu\u015ftur. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 finansman imkanlar\u0131n\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki aya benzer seyretti\u011fi g\u00f6zlenmektedir.”<\/p>\n

\n\tTCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulunun 25 Nisan’daki toplant\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin yay\u0131mlanan \u00f6zette martta ayl\u0131k man\u015fet enflasyon ve enflasyonun ana e\u011filiminin gerilemekle beraber Enflasyon Raporu tahmin patikas\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenin \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fi belirtilerek, t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n martta y\u00fczde 3,16 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun 1,43 puan art\u0131\u015fla y\u00fczde 68,5 oldu\u011fu kaydedildi.<\/p>\n

\n\tBu d\u00f6nemde temel mal, hizmet ve enerji gruplar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyona katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ve g\u0131da ile alkol-t\u00fct\u00fcn-alt\u0131n gruplar\u0131n\u0131n katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yatay seyretti\u011fi ifade edilen \u00f6zette, martta hizmetlerin en y\u00fcksek fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6steren grup oldu\u011fu bilgisi payla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00d6zette \u015funlar kaydedildi:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Bu grupta ayl\u0131k enflasyon yava\u015flasa da \u00fccret ve geriye do\u011fru endeksleme e\u011filiminin yans\u0131malar\u0131 s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f, ula\u015ft\u0131rma hizmetleri hari\u00e7 genele yay\u0131lan fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 izlenmi\u015ftir. Temel mal ayl\u0131k enflasyonu, d\u00f6viz kuru geli\u015fmeleri ve diren\u00e7li seyreden i\u00e7 talep ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n maliyet ge\u00e7i\u015flerini kolayla\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle bu d\u00f6nemde g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. G\u0131da grubunda k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 et \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken bu kalemde s\u00fcregelen fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, ikame beyaz et \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine de yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f ve girdi te\u015fkil ettikleri i\u015flenmi\u015f et \u00fcr\u00fcnleri fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 da yukar\u0131ya \u00e7ekmi\u015ftir. Mart ay\u0131nda i\u015flenmi\u015f g\u0131da ayl\u0131k enflasyonundaki yava\u015flama ise dikkat \u00e7ekmi\u015ftir. G\u0131da grubu, do\u011frudan etkilerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra yemek hizmetleri kanal\u0131yla dolayl\u0131 olarak man\u015fet enflasyonunu olumsuz etkilemeye devam etmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

\n\tEnerji grubu ayl\u0131k enflasyonu ise akaryak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmelere paralel olarak yava\u015flama g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. Mart ay\u0131nda bedelsiz do\u011fal gaz kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ayl\u0131k t\u00fcketici enflasyonuna mekanik etkisi 0,02 puan ile olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.”<\/p>\n

\n\tMartta ayl\u0131k enflasyonun ana e\u011filiminin s\u00fcren zay\u0131flamaya ra\u011fmen \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden y\u00fcksek ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi belirtilen \u00f6zette, mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f verilerle B ve C endekslerinin ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 3,5 ve y\u00fczde 3,9 seviyelerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re bir miktar zay\u0131flasa da y\u00fcksek seyretmeye devam etti\u011fi vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tB ve C endekslerinde mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k ortalama art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ise s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 4,8 ve y\u00fczde 5,4 olarak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kaydedilen \u00f6zette, “Mart ay\u0131nda fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, B endeksini olu\u015fturan gruplardan temel malda \u00f6nceki aya k\u0131yasla g\u00fc\u00e7 kazan\u0131rken hizmet ve \u00f6zellikle i\u015flenmi\u015f g\u0131dada zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu d\u00f6nemde Medyan, SATRIM ve di\u011fer ana e\u011filim g\u00f6stergeleri gerilerken yay\u0131l\u0131m endeksindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmu\u015ftur.” bilgisi payla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tHizmet enflasyonundaki y\u00fcksek seyir ve kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n, enflasyon beklentilerinin, jeopolitik risklerin ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131 canl\u0131 tuttu\u011funa i\u015faret edilerek, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n maliyet y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkisi gerek mal gerekse hizmet fiyatlar\u0131na daha h\u0131zl\u0131 yans\u0131rken talep y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkisinin zamana yay\u0131lmakta ve nispeten daha fazla belirsizlik i\u00e7ermekte oldu\u011fu bildirildi.<\/p>\n

\n\tHizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde hakim fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir atalete ve \u015foklar\u0131n enflasyon \u00fczerindeki etkilerinin uzun s\u00fcreye yay\u0131lmas\u0131na neden oldu\u011funa de\u011finilen \u00f6zette, y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun martta temel mal grubunda y\u00fczde 56,5 olurken hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 96,5 ile 40 puan yukar\u0131da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00d6zette hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne ait yay\u0131l\u0131m endeksinin martta tarihsel ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 32\u2019si kadar \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fi vurgulanarak, art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n bir miktar g\u00fc\u00e7 kaybetmekle beraber sekt\u00f6r geneline yay\u0131lmaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n

\n\tKonut fiyatlar\u0131 ve kira art\u0131\u015f\u0131<\/h2>\n

\n\tBu bak\u0131mdan, yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem t\u00fcketici enflasyonu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, belirli hizmet kalemlerinde enflasyonun bir s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek seyretme riskinin bulundu\u011fu, kira, e\u011fitim ve haberle\u015fme gibi hizmet sekt\u00f6rlerinin bu ba\u011flamda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fi \u00f6zette \u015funlar kaydedildi:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Y\u0131ll\u0131k kira enflasyonu y\u00fcksek bir seviyede seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken Perakende \u00d6deme Sistemi (P\u00d6S) mikro verileri \u00fczerinden takip edilen \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler, kira art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131nda \u015fubat ay\u0131nda ba\u015flayan yava\u015flaman\u0131n nisan ay\u0131nda devam edece\u011fini ima etmektedir. \u00d6te yandan, konut fiyatlar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u015fubat itibar\u0131yla y\u00fczde 58,3 seviyesine gerileyerek y\u0131ll\u0131k t\u00fcketici enflasyonunun alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken mevsimsel etkilerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f veriler, bu kalemdeki ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n da son aylarda \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmi\u015ftir. Konut fiyatlar\u0131ndaki bu durumun, ilerleyen d\u00f6nemde kira enflasyonunu s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak bir unsur oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendirilmektedir. Di\u011fer taraftan, kira art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 25 ile s\u0131n\u0131rlayan reg\u00fclasyonun yak\u0131n gelecekte y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckten kalkacak olmas\u0131n\u0131n kira enflasyonuna etkisi de yak\u0131ndan takip edilecektir.”<\/p>\n

\n\t“E\u011fitim hizmetlerinde ise \u00f6zel okul \u00fccretlerinde y\u00fcksek oranl\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar izlenmektedir. \u00dccret geli\u015fmelerinden etkilenmenin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra ge\u00e7mi\u015f enflasyona endeksleme e\u011filiminin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu bu kalemin, fiyat a\u00e7\u0131klama tarihlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 azalarak da olsa temmuz ay\u0131na kadar kademeli bir \u015fekilde T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne yans\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, hizmet enflasyonunu yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkileme riski bulunmaktad\u0131r.” ifadelerine yer verilen \u00f6zette \u015funlar vurguland\u0131:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Haberle\u015fme hizmetleri de cep telefonu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme ve internet \u00fccretleri \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde y\u00fcksek ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6stermektedir. Tarihsel olarak \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir e\u011filim sergileyen haberle\u015fme y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonunun, mart ay\u0131 itibar\u0131yla y\u00fczde 72\u2019ye ula\u015farak t\u00fcketici enflasyonunun da \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi dikkat \u00e7ekmektedir. Bunlara ilaveten, k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 et fiyatlar\u0131nda s\u00fcregelen y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015flar nedeniyle yemek hizmetleri fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korumaktad\u0131r. Sigorta hizmetlerindeki geli\u015fmeleri zorunlu trafik sigortas\u0131 kalemi \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ula\u015ft\u0131rma sigortas\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcklerken ge\u00e7ilen yeni sistemden kaynaklanan ilgili fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flamakta oldu\u011fu izlenmektedir.”<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00d6zette yurt i\u00e7i \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 martta y\u00fczde 3,29 y\u00fckselirken endekste y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun 4,18 puan art\u0131\u015fla y\u00fczde 51,5 oldu\u011fu kaydedilerek, “Ana sanayi gruplar\u0131na g\u00f6re incelendi\u011finde, enerji grubunda daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmak \u00fczere, mart ay\u0131nda t\u00fcm gruplarda ayl\u0131k bazda fiyatlar y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. Y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon, dayan\u0131ks\u0131z t\u00fcketim grubunda g\u00f6rece yatay, di\u011fer gruplarda ise yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyretmi\u015ftir.” bilgisi verildi.<\/p>\n

\n\t2023’\u00fcn ekim ay\u0131ndan itibaren gerileyen k\u00fcresel emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda ocakta ba\u015flayan art\u0131\u015f e\u011filiminin martta bir miktar g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanarak s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ifade edilen \u00f6zette, martta alt k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m baz\u0131nda k\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131 art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimini korurken son aylarda yataya yak\u0131n seyreden enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n end\u00fcstriyel metal alt grubu \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bildirildi.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00d6zette, nisan\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 haftas\u0131 itibar\u0131yla her iki gruptaki fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n daha belirgin hale geldi\u011finin izlendi\u011fi belirtilerek, “S\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 emtiada, end\u00fcstriyel metal grubu fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fiyle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmaya devam etmi\u015ftir. Ayr\u0131ca, uluslararas\u0131 alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131, mart ay\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan nisan ay\u0131nda da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir.” ifadeleri kullan\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tK\u00fcresel Arz Zinciri Bask\u0131 Endeksi’nin martta tarihsel e\u011filiminde seyretti\u011fi kaydedilen \u00f6zette, bu d\u00f6nemde bir miktar gerileyen k\u00fcresel navlun \u00fccretlerinin, nisanda azalma e\u011filimini devam ettirmekle beraber g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bildirildi.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00d6zette, \u015fubatta belirgin de\u011fi\u015fiklik sergilemeyen tedarik\u00e7ilerin teslimat s\u00fcrelerinin ise martta bir miktar iyile\u015fti\u011fi ve ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k maliyetlerinin izleyen aylardaki geli\u015fiminin ve enflasyon \u00fczerindeki olas\u0131 etkilerinin yak\u0131ndan takip edilecek bir unsur oldu\u011fu hat\u0131rlat\u0131larak, \u015fu ifadelere yer verildi:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Orta vadeli enflasyon beklentilerinde gerileme devam ederken 2024 ve 2025 y\u0131l sonu enflasyon beklentileri, Enflasyon Raporu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerinin \u00fczerinde ve yatay seyretmi\u015ftir. Nisan ay\u0131 Piyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Anketi’nin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re on iki ay sonras\u0131na ili\u015fkin enflasyon beklentisi y\u00fczde 36,7\u2019den y\u00fczde 35,2, yirmi d\u00f6rt ay sonras\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklenti ise y\u00fczde 22,7\u2019den y\u00fczde 22,1 seviyesine gerilemi\u015ftir. \u00d6te yandan, cari y\u0131l ve gelecek y\u0131l sonuna ili\u015fkin enflasyon beklentileri de\u011fi\u015fmeyerek s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 44,2 ve y\u00fczde 26,3 olarak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Be\u015f y\u0131l sonras\u0131na ili\u015fkin enflasyon beklentisi ise y\u00fczde 12,8\u2019den 0,52 puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncellemeyle y\u00fczde 12,3 olmu\u015ftur.”<\/p>\n

\n\tEnflasyon beklentilerinin mevcut seyrinin enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk te\u015fkil etti\u011fi ve Kurulun enflasyon beklentileri ve fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerle uyumunu yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi belirtilen \u00f6zette \u015funlar kaydedildi:<\/p>\n

\n\t“\u00d6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler, nisan ay\u0131nda enflasyonun ana e\u011filiminde yava\u015flaman\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret etmektedir. Di\u011fer taraftan, s\u00f6z konusu yava\u015flamaya ra\u011fmen ana e\u011filim Enflasyon Raporu\u2019nda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00fczeyin bir miktar \u00fczerinde seyretmektedir. \u00d6nc\u00fc verilere g\u00f6re, nisan ay\u0131nda mevsimsel etkilerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, temel mal grubunda \u00f6nceki aya k\u0131yasla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stermekte, hizmetlerde ise yava\u015flamakla birlikte y\u00fcksek seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmektedir. Alt gruplar incelendi\u011finde, kur ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fi y\u00fcksek ve h\u0131zl\u0131 olan dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal grubunda fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n bu d\u00f6nemde zay\u0131flayarak da olsa devam etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Hizmet grubunda da \u00f6nceki aylarda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan kalemlere ek olarak, bayram etkisiyle ula\u015ft\u0131rma hizmetleri fiyatlar\u0131nda da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlenmi\u015ftir.”<\/p>\n

\n\t“Enerji grubunda akaryak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, t\u00fcketimdeki mevsimsel gerilemeyi takiben endekse yans\u0131yan do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle dengelenece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.” g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne yer verilen \u00f6zette \u015fu bilgiler payla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131:<\/p>\n

\n\t“\u00d6nc\u00fc veriler, g\u0131da grubunda i\u015flenmi\u015f g\u0131dadaki olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn korundu\u011funa ancak i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131dadaki y\u00fcksek fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flayarak da olsa s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret etmektedir. Nisan ay\u0131nda sebze \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde taze meyve ve sebze fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6rece \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f izlenirken k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 et ve bu kalemin beraberinde s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fi beyaz et kaleminde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015flar s\u00fcrmektedir. Alkol-t\u00fct\u00fcn grubu fiyatlar\u0131 ise t\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fcr\u00fcnlerindeki geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u00fckselmektedir. B\u00f6ylelikle nisan ay\u0131 enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde emtia fiyat geli\u015fmeleri ve d\u00f6viz kurunun gecikmeli etkileri ile diren\u00e7li seyreden yurt i\u00e7i talebin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 et fiyatlar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmelerin etkisi hissedilirken geriye do\u011fru endeksleme e\u011filiminin yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve hizmet grubu fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n genele yay\u0131larak devam etti\u011fi izlenmektedir.”<\/p>\n

\n\tPara Politikas\u0131<\/h2>\n

\n\tPPK Toplant\u0131 \u00d6zetinde Kurulun parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n gecikmeli etkilerini de g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak politika faizinin sabit tutulmas\u0131na karar vermekle birlikte enflasyon \u00fczerindeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere kar\u015f\u0131 ihtiyatl\u0131 duru\u015funu yineledi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n

\n\tAyl\u0131k enflasyonun ana e\u011filiminde belirgin ve kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sa\u011flanana ve enflasyon beklentileri \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na yak\u0131nsayana kadar s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclece\u011fi vurgulanan \u00f6zette, “Enflasyonda belirgin ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bozulma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi durumunda para politikas\u0131 duru\u015fu s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lacakt\u0131r. Para politikas\u0131ndaki kararl\u0131 duru\u015f, yurt i\u00e7i talepte dengelenme, T\u00fcrk liras\u0131nda reel de\u011ferlenme ve enflasyon beklentilerinde d\u00fczelme vas\u0131tas\u0131 ile ayl\u0131k enflasyonun ana e\u011filimini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek ve dezenflasyon 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda tesis edilecektir.” de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulunuldu.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00d6zette, “Kurul, makroihtiyati politikalar\u0131, piyasa mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n i\u015flevselli\u011fini ve makro finansal istikrar\u0131 koruyacak nitelikte uygulamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmektedir.” ifadesine yer verilerek, bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve mevduat faizinde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda geli\u015fmeler olmas\u0131 durumunda parasal aktar\u0131m mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n desteklenmeye devam edilece\u011fi bildirildi.<\/p>\n

\n\tLikidite geli\u015fmelerinin yak\u0131ndan takip edildi\u011fi vurgulanan \u00f6zette \u015funlar kaydedildi:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Gerekti\u011finde sterilizasyon ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n etkin \u015fekilde kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclecektir. TCMB taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan d\u00fczenlemelere ili\u015fkin etki analizleri, s\u00f6z konusu \u00e7er\u00e7evenin t\u00fcm bile\u015fenleri i\u00e7in enflasyon, faizler, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131, rezervler, beklentiler ve finansal istikrar \u00fczerindeki yans\u0131malar\u0131yla birlikte b\u00fct\u00fcnc\u00fcl bir bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131yla de\u011ferlendirilerek yap\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Kurul, politika kararlar\u0131n\u0131 parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n gecikmeli etkilerini de dikkate alarak enflasyonun ana e\u011filimini geriletecek ve enflasyonu orta vadede y\u00fczde 5 hedefine ula\u015ft\u0131racak parasal ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 sa\u011flayacak \u015fekilde belirleyecektir.<\/p>\n

\n\tEnflasyon ve enflasyonun ana e\u011filimine ili\u015fkin g\u00f6stergeler yak\u0131ndan takip edilecek ve Kurul, fiyat istikrar\u0131 temel amac\u0131 do\u011frultusunda elindeki t\u00fcm ara\u00e7lar\u0131 kararl\u0131l\u0131kla kullanacakt\u0131r. Kurul, kararlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir, veri odakl\u0131 ve \u015feffaf bir \u00e7er\u00e7evede alacakt\u0131r.”<\/p>\n

\n
ET\u0130KETLER<\/div>\n
\n Enflasyon
\n Faiz
\n Konut
\n Merkez Bankas\u0131\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu, Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Karahan ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yar\u0131n…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2460,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1345,287,482,254,1435,2268,550],"class_list":["post-8400","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi-haberleri","tag-cevrildi","tag-faiz","tag-gozler","tag-icinde","tag-kararina","tag-tcmbnin","tag-yurt"],"yoast_head":"\nYurt i\u00e7inde g\u00f6zler TCMB'nin faiz karar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi - Es-Exchange Ekonomi Haberleri<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=8400\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Yurt i\u00e7inde g\u00f6zler TCMB'nin faiz karar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi - 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