{"id":8485,"date":"2024-05-25T15:14:44","date_gmt":"2024-05-25T12:14:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=8485"},"modified":"2024-05-25T15:14:44","modified_gmt":"2024-05-25T12:14:44","slug":"dogurganlik-hizindaki-dusus-emeklilik-sisteminde-yuku-artiracak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=8485","title":{"rendered":"Do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, emeklilik sisteminde y\u00fck\u00fc art\u0131racak"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\n\tHacettepe \u00dcniversitesi \u0130ktisadi \u0130dari Bilimler Fak\u00fcltesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Do\u00e7. Dr. Aykut Attar, T\u00fcrkiye’de do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesine ili\u015fkin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn n\u00fcfus ya\u015flanmas\u0131n\u0131 beraberinde getirdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\n\tYa\u015fl\u0131lar\u0131n n\u00fcfus i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131n baz\u0131 olas\u0131 olumsuz ekonomik etkilerin do\u011fmas\u0131na neden olabilece\u011fini anlatan Attar, bunlardan birinin sosyal g\u00fcvenlik sistemleri \u00fczerindeki finansal y\u00fcklerin art\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n

\n\tAttar, “T\u00fcrkiye sosyal g\u00fcvenlik sisteminin uzun d\u00f6nem finansal s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi konusunda \u00e7e\u015fitli sorunlar ya\u015fayan bir \u00fclke. Emeklilik sisteminde s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi \u00f6nceliklendiren yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmler halihaz\u0131rda gerekli ve do\u011furganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n daha h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmesi bu sorunu biraz daha derinle\u015ftirebilir.” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

\n\t“\u00c7al\u0131\u015fma ya\u015f\u0131ndaki n\u00fcfusumuz daha da gerileyecek”<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\n\tBununla ili\u015fkili olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ya\u015f\u0131ndaki n\u00fcfusun pay\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinin de ba\u015fka bir sorun olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131na dikkati \u00e7eken Attar, “T\u00fcrkiye halihaz\u0131rda demografik f\u0131rsat penceresinin a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011fu bir \u00fclke ancak bunun kapanmas\u0131na da az kald\u0131. Yani ilerleyen d\u00f6nemde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ya\u015f\u0131ndaki n\u00fcfusumuz daha da gerileyecek.” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u0130\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc hacmine uygun teknolojik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmlerin ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n planlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini anlatan Attar, ekonomik yap\u0131da, ya\u015flanma ve olas\u0131 daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ya\u015flanma dinamiklerini dikkate alan plan ve program ile politikalar\u0131n geli\u015ftirilmesi ve uygulanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine vurgu yapt\u0131. Attar, \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n

\n\t“Daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ya\u015flanma, daha zay\u0131f giri\u015fimcilik ve teknolojik ilerlemeye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelebilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc genelde yap\u0131lan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar, bu konularda gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfusun \u00f6nemine vurgu yapar. T\u00fcketim yap\u0131s\u0131nda, tasarruflar\u0131n hacminde de \u00e7e\u015fitli etkiler do\u011facakt\u0131r. Yani n\u00fcfusun ya\u015flanmas\u0131, ger\u00e7ekten de \u00e7ok say\u0131da ekonomik sonu\u00e7 do\u011furabilecek bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 ve de\u011fi\u015fim.”<\/p>\n

\n\t“Do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi demografik de\u011fi\u015fimi de beraberinde getirir”<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\n\tHacettepe \u00dcniversitesi N\u00fcfus Et\u00fctleri Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Do\u00e7. Dr. Ay\u015fe Abbaso\u011flu \u00d6zg\u00f6ren de T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumunun son a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 do\u011fum istatistiklerine g\u00f6re toplam do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n 2023’te 1,51 \u00e7ocuk olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini an\u0131msatarak, toplam do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n 1950’lerden bu yana genel olarak d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filiminde oldu\u011funu bildirdi.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u0130lk kez ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 2,09 d\u00fczeyiyle n\u00fcfusun yenilenme d\u00fczeyi olan 2,10’un alt\u0131na inildi\u011fini belirten \u00d6zg\u00f6ren, toplam do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131nda 2003 y\u0131l\u0131 sonras\u0131 bile k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 da olsa y\u00fckselmelerin g\u00f6zlendi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00d6zg\u00f6ren, 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda 2,19 olarak hesaplanan toplam do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n, bu y\u0131ldan sonra devaml\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferek 1,51 seviyesine indi\u011fine dikkati \u00e7ekti. \u00d6zg\u00f6ren, \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n

\n\t“K\u0131sacas\u0131 do\u011furganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi uzun bir s\u00fcrecin sonucu diyebiliriz. Demografik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olan do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi ba\u015fka bir\u00e7ok demografik de\u011fi\u015fimi beraberinde getirir. Do\u011furganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n azalmas\u0131yla \u00e7ocuk ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k oran\u0131 yani 0-14 ya\u015f grubunun \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u00e7a\u011f\u0131 n\u00fcfusa oran\u0131 azal\u0131r, bununla birlikte uzun vadede n\u00fcfusun ya\u015flanmas\u0131 olgusu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 itibar\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye’de ortanca ya\u015f 34’e ula\u015ft\u0131. 65 ya\u015f \u00fcst\u00fc n\u00fcfusun toplam n\u00fcfus i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 10,2’ye y\u00fckseldi. Bir\u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131flamaya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 10’un \u00fczerinde olan bu oranla T\u00fcrkiye art\u0131k ‘ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfusa sahip’ \u00fclkedir.”<\/p>\n

\n\tDemografik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmde f\u0131rsat ve zorluklar<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\n\tDo\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 sonucu n\u00fcfusun ya\u015flanmas\u0131n\u0131n demografik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn par\u00e7as\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret eden \u00d6zg\u00f6ren, “Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 hem f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 hem zorluklar\u0131 beraberinde getirir. F\u0131rsat derken demografik temett\u00fc veya bonus olgusunu kastediyorum. H\u0131zl\u0131 do\u011furganl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle d\u00fc\u015fen ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k oran\u0131 ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u00e7a\u011f\u0131 n\u00fcfusunun oran\u0131 artar. Bu d\u00f6nem demografik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm s\u00fcrecinde a\u00e7\u0131lan ge\u00e7ici bir penceredir ve demografik f\u0131rsat penceresi olarak adland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r.” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00dclkenin n\u00fcfusu, \u00e7ok ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfusa evrilmeden \u00f6nce artan i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcyle \u00fclkenin, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme f\u0131rsat\u0131 elde edece\u011fini anlatan \u00d6zg\u00f6ren, T\u00fcrkiye’nin \u015fu an her \u00fclkenin bir kez deneyimleyebilece\u011fi bu demografik f\u0131rsat penceresinden ge\u00e7ti\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00d6zg\u00f6ren, 2000’li y\u0131llarda a\u00e7\u0131lan bu pencerenin gelecek 16 y\u0131l daha a\u00e7\u0131k olmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini dile getirerek, “\u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u00e7a\u011f\u0131 n\u00fcfusu 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 itibar\u0131yla y\u00fczde 68,3 seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bu olumlu ya\u015f yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n belirli ko\u015fullarla desteklenmesi gerekiyor. \u0130\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131, \u00e7ocuklar\u0131n ve gen\u00e7lerin be\u015feri sermaye birikimine y\u00f6nelik politikalar yani e\u011fitimi ve insana yak\u0131\u015f\u0131r i\u015f yaratan i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc arz\u0131 mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131n hayata ge\u00e7irilmesi hayati \u00f6neme sahip. T\u00fcm \u00e7ocuklar\u0131n e\u011fitimde olmas\u0131 ve e\u011fitimde, i\u015fte, stajda olmayan gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfus oran\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131, yeti\u015fkin n\u00fcfusun insana yak\u0131\u015f\u0131r i\u015flerde istihdam edilmesi f\u0131rsat penceresinden azami d\u00fczeyde faydalanmak i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli.” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n\tDo\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinin bir\u00e7ok zorlu\u011fu da beraberinde getirece\u011fini anlatan \u00d6zg\u00f6ren, T\u00fcrkiye’de 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda 4 milyon 842 bin 450’si kad\u0131n olmak \u00fczere toplam 8 milyon 722 bin 806 ya\u015fl\u0131n\u0131n bulundu\u011funu kaydetti.<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00d6zg\u00f6ren, bu rakam\u0131n bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkenin n\u00fcfusundan fazla oldu\u011funa dikkati \u00e7ekerek, “Ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfusun, bak\u0131m ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ve gereksinimlerinin kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131 gerekir. Bu durum devlete ve topluma hem iktisadi hem sosyal y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckler getirmektedir. Bu n\u00fcfusun desteklenmesi, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u00e7a\u011f\u0131 n\u00fcfusunun istihdam\u0131na ve formal sisteme entegre olmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Ancak \u00f6nce COVID-19 salg\u0131n\u0131, sonra 6 \u015eubat depremleri ve son d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fanan iktisadi kriz, bu makro s\u00fcre\u00e7leri zorla\u015ft\u0131ran fakt\u00f6rler oldu.” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

\n
ET\u0130KETLER<\/div>\n
\n Kad\u0131n Do\u011fum
\n N\u00fcfus
\n T\u00dc\u0130K\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hacettepe \u00dcniversitesi \u0130ktisadi \u0130dari Bilimler Fak\u00fcltesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Do\u00e7. Dr. Aykut Attar, T\u00fcrkiye’de do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8486,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[3183,7555,314,4026,7556,5062,1447],"class_list":["post-8485","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi-haberleri","tag-artiracak","tag-dogurganlik","tag-dusus","tag-emeklilik","tag-hizindaki","tag-sisteminde","tag-yuku"],"yoast_head":"\nDo\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, emeklilik sisteminde y\u00fck\u00fc art\u0131racak - Es-Exchange Ekonomi Haberleri<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/es-exchange.com\/haberler\/?p=8485\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Do\u011furganl\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, emeklilik sisteminde y\u00fck\u00fc art\u0131racak - Es-Exchange Ekonomi Haberleri\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Hacettepe \u00dcniversitesi \u0130ktisadi \u0130dari Bilimler Fak\u00fcltesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Do\u00e7. 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